Corbyn’s Trident review. Winning a battle but the losing the war?
Donald Brind: From a Labour perspective Emily Thornberry, the new recruit to the Corbyn Shadow Cabinet has a sense of mischief and tells a great story about her General Election outing in 2001 in the safe Tory seat of Canterbury. Her opponent was Julian Brazier, who is proud of his family’s military heritage. His father was a lieutenant colonel and he spent 13 years as an officer the Territorial Army, five of them in the with the SAS. At a…
This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin
So what now for Farage’s party and the Referendum Campaign This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast talks about UKIP and the upcoming EU referendum with Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent. Goodwin is one of the foremost experts on UKIP and is co-author of ‘Revolt on the Right’ (2015 political book of the year) and the more recently ‘UKIP: Inside the campaign to redraw the map of British politics’. Topics covered on this week’s podcast include: 1) How is…
Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016
Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25) Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 551 (71%), Conservative 134 (17%), Labour 93 (12%) Candidates duly nominated: John Allman (Christian People’s Alliance), Val Bugden-Cawsey (Con), Roger Creagh-Osborne (Green), Gemma Massey (Lib Dem) Result…
The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”
Too many LAB supporters interviewed – not enough Tories A new report just published today by NatCen Social Research and authored by leading psephologist, Prof John Curtice, suggests that the polls called the General Election wrong primarily because the samples of people they polled were not adequately representative of the country as a whole. Rather than other explanations, such as a late swing to the Conservative Party, Labour abstentions, or so-called “shy Tories†not telling pollsters their true voting intentions,…
Trump now the clear favourite on Betfair to win the Republican nomination for the Presidency
Just 18 days till Iowa Trump now the clear favourite on the Betfair exchange to become Republican nominee. Rated a 33.3% chance. pic.twitter.com/nme8WWCdbf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2016 For the Presidency he’s a 14.7% chance
If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?
This is big #EUref news. Boris says he's not an "outer" https://t.co/0a8iBc4yxp pic.twitter.com/fimi0HCPoB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2016 What about Jacob Rees-Mogg? The EU referendum is getting closer and last week’s announcement by David Cameron that ministers could campaign for LEAVE might have been expected to open the flood gates of senior Tories announcing that they would be campaigning against. Boris would have been a superb catch but the Mayor only does things that fit in with his…
A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution
Real Clear Poitics Why for betting state polling is a better pointer Every day at the moment the excellent Real Clear Politics site is putting up the above table showing the national polling average for the Republican nomination compared with what it was at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 races. As can be seen the national averages from the last two Presidential elections bore no relation to who in fact won the Republican party nominations. The reason is…