After a months of very large REMAIN leads in the phone polls we’ve now had three in the past week which are all showing that the race is getting much tighter. Ipsos and ComRes have 8% REMAIN leads while Survation has it at 11% – all very similar.
At the same time there hasn’t been much movement in the online polls so we are, perhaps, seeing a level on convergence as we get closer to the day – on 12 weeks away.
To my mind this race is becoming much more open and I’ve started laying REMAIN on Betfair. I think the price is tight.
One issue that’s come up this afternoon is in this Tweet exchange.
.@greygossling Uniquely ComRes down-weights voting certainty responses of groups it thinks are over-stating their likelihood to vote
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2016