The uncertainty principle. A step by step guide to handling confusing polling in your betting

The uncertainty principle. A step by step guide to handling confusing polling in your betting

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The Alastair Meeks Decision Tree You can access the descison tree here The EU referendum polling is all over the shop, with a stark divide between the phone polls, which show a clear Remain lead, and the online polls, which show it neck and neck with Leave perhaps fractionally ahead.  How on earth are we supposed to cater for this in our betting? Here’s how.  We only need to assess two things: what the current state of public opinion is…

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Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

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What if the phone polls are wrong? Earlier on this year I spoke to someone who works in the polling industry, they ruefully observed that the 2015 general election opinion polls accurately predicted the Tory victory, so long as you ignored the headline voting intention figures and focussed on the supplementaries, and I’m starting to wonder if we might be seeing a similar situation with this EU referendum, where whatever the headline voting intention figure is, the supplementaries are generally…

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The next recession

The next recession

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Trying to predict the next recession has the danger making you sound like The Ancient Mariner but William Hill have a market up if the UK is going to have recession by the end of 2017 if you want to bet on the timing of it. I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit. Most of the economic mood music seems to indicate backing a recession occurring before the end of 2017 might be the best…

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CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EURef position than Boris’s

CON voters, it appears, are now more inclined to Dave’s EURef position than Boris’s

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My article for tomorrow's Observer on the #EURef polling https://t.co/yfXfgCuYiW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 New Opinium online poll has IN lead getting widerIN: 44% (+2)OUT: 40% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 CON voters split #EURef pollsICM phone 49-39 INICM online 45-44 INYouGov 44-44Ipsos MORI 60-34 INComRes 48-46 INOpinium 48-41 IN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 If it stays this way it could be decisive The general view until this last week has…

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For millions the referendum will be over next weekend. Postal voting starts next Saturday

For millions the referendum will be over next weekend. Postal voting starts next Saturday

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The postal ballots go out next week Anything upto a quarter of the votes cast in the referendum will be by post and the time-table stipulated by the Electoral Commission states that ballot packs to postal voters should start to go out on Monday. Initially those who currently live overseas will be mailed but the plan is that UK-based postal voters will start getting their ballots by the weekend. Given that we know from past elections that most postal voters…

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Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

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It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part. In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within…

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The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

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Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What the #EURef would look like if we just had phone polls pic.twitter.com/H2FmsCtkUL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What EURef would look like if it was just online polls pic.twitter.com/pOx6ALKDLI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 Maybe all in the polling industry should have same humility as ICM's @martinboon in the…

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If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

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This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads. Inevitably this has had an impact on the huge EUref betting markets where on Betfair alone getting on for £0.5m is being wagered each day. As I write REMAIN’s chances are rated by the market at 79% just about the highest it has ever been. But what if there were…

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