New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016 New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016
A special post by ComRes’s Adam Ludlow The polls for the London mayoral election performed strongly across the board, perhaps bringing pollsters some respite following last year’s General Election. But as pollsters, we must be careful never to rest on our laurels and make sure to review our methods and seek to improve when things go well, as well as when bigger problems occur. Indeed, at ComRes, the London result was of particular interest to us as it was the…
REMAIN now a 78% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/0aItlRMc6C — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2016
A guide by Alastair Meeks on betting on the overall EURef outcome Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event. It’s time to put that right. At the time of writing, Remain is 1.31 on Betfair (a 76% chance) I understand that the conventional bookies have seen Remain overwhelmingly favoured at all stages despite the short odds offered. Should you be…
What is the future for Labour? On this week’s show, Keiran and Rob analyse YouGov’s recent polling of Labour members and what’s behind Jeremy Corbyn’s seemingly unassailable position as Labour leader. They also address the apparent limitations of such polling as described by pollster James Morris in today’s Times and what this poll tells us (and doesn’t tell us) about the future of the Labour Party. Meanwhile, the Polling Matters team also look at the continued difference between what online…
A guest slot by Cyclefree It was Socrates who said that the “unexamined life is not worth living”. By the same token, one might also say that the unexamined EU is not worth being a member of. And – despite all the claims and counter-claims, exaggerations, half-truths, figures plucked out of obscure studies or the air and celebrity or heavy weight endorsements – it often feels that all the referendum campaign has amounted to is little more than “a tale…
It’s been a big morning with EURef polling. First we had YouGov online showing a 4% IN lead on a revised methodology. Then then we had the May Ipsos phone poll in the Standard with IN extending its lead to 18%. That’s a huge margin and it is starting to look insurmountable. This means that the three phone polls this week all have REMAIN extending its margin even though the numbers vary from pollster to pollster. The Ipsos lead is…
Alastair Meeks on the messaging challenges this presents for IN and OUT Leave campaigners have been vehemently arguing that we urgently need to leave the EU for many years as a top priority. Such is their vehemence and their prominence, it is easy to forget that this is a minority view. Ipsos-MORI have been tracking what the public considers to be the important issues of the day for decades. Most of the time, the EU languishes at about 10% naming…