politicalbetting.com – Page 1080 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

As the EURef poster campaigns are about to start Roger evaluates their effectiveness

17/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Tory poster from GE2015 campaign Hit Hard Hit Fast and Keep Hitting’ (Jeremy Sinclair, Saatchis) Ernest Hemingway believed the best thing he ever wrote was a six word advert “For sale. Baby shoes. Never worn”. You can understand why a novelist might be happy with such an effective use of six words. If he’d spent his time in advertising he might have honed his technique further and managed something equally effective but using only three. “Beanz Meanz Heinz”. After several…

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Game over. What should the Labour right do now that it has lost?

17/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks looks at the options As Leonard Cohen once crooned, everybody knows the war is over, everybody knows the good guys lost. With Labour’s surprisingly good performance in the recent election round, even the faint hope of a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership this year has evaporated. This will give him the time and space to effect the necessary reforms of the party to ensure that he cannot be ousted by a Parliamentary coup. So the Labour right are…

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Great news for IN from ICM phone survey and for OUT from ICM online poll

16/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The great modal divide continues ICM's two referendum polls after excluding DKsPHONE IN 55% OUT 45%ONLINE IN 48% OUT 52% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2016 ICM phone poll before DKs excluded IN 47% -1OUT 39% -2DKs 14%+3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2016 Westminster VI ICM phoneCON 36%-2LAB 32% +1LD 7%=UKIP 13%= ICM Westminster onlineCON 34%LAB 32LD 7%UKIP 17% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2016 Online versus Phone. During formal GE2015 campaign 56% of phone polls…

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Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers

16/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

A few days ago during the inevitable Political Betting dissection of the too-ings and fro-ings of another day in the EU referendum campaign the fact that this race really might be a close one began to sink in. I am a moderate Leaver – the sort who accepts that there are weaknesses in some of the arguments put forward by the Leave campaign, but for various reasons sees that our future and Europe’s might be better apart. I can therefore…

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After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair is moving back to REMAIN

15/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

REMAIN is edging back up on the Betfair exchange. Now a 71% – was 68% 2 days ago pic.twitter.com/bFB9eM39JC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2016 Could all this change when we get some new numbers? From a straightforward trading perspective there is a good reason to back IN at the moment. The third week of the month is when we get the phone polls which have been showing very solid IN leads. For whatever reason they all seem to…

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LEAVE should deploy David Davis – the only person apart from Clegg to have beaten Cameron in a TV debate

15/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

No image problems like Gove, IDS or “twice sacked for dishonesty” Johnson What’s very striking so far in the campaign is the lack of effective communication skills amongst the LEAVE team. Iain Duncan Smith once again this morning showed how right Tory MPs were to sack him in 2003 and Gove hardly comes over convincingly though his writing is better than his TV appearances. For whatever reason the official LEAVE outfit is opposed to Farage having any role – a…

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A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election

15/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Can you spot what subtle message David Cameron is trying to get across if the UK votes to leave the EU? pic.twitter.com/szzuh9VBT0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 14, 2016 Brexiteers are in danger of being blamed for the next recession even if it has nothing do with Brexit On one side we have, inter alia, the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, and the great and the good, from the IMF, the OECD, NIESR, The Bank of England, and their Governor, Mark Carney,…

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Boris’s flexible approach to the truth appears to be catching up with him

14/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Boris Johnson accused of 'dishonest gymnastics' over TTIP U-turn https://t.co/hISwWVfW4w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2016 .@TheEconomist becomes another voice questioning Boris Johnson's truthfulness https://t.co/AvdePerXi3 via — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2016 Good point about Boris & the truth from Jonathan Freedland. The would-be PM has been fired twice for dishonesty https://t.co/0CCFN1VSWY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2016 A narrative is starting to develop which could destroy the favourite’s leadership ambitions