Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016

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Northallerton South (Con defence) on Hambleton Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 27, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,414, 758 (49%) United Kingdom Independence Party 762 (26%) Labour 739, 654 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Dickinson (Con), Chris Pearson (Yorkshire First), Dave Robertson (UKIP), David Tickle (Lab) Northallerton (Con defence) on North Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 45, Independents…

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This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks

This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks

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This has been doing the rounds on Twitter & looks like the first Saatchi poster for REMAIN pic.twitter.com/439bBFCoA9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 Sowing seeds of doubt has been successful before The poster above has started being circulated on Twitter and my guess is that its is part of the Saatchi & Saatchi campaign for IN. The clarity of approach with a very simple message and even the typeface appear to be Saatchi house style. Whatever it is…

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Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE decision hasn’t been good for his career ambitions

Judging by his betting price collapse Boris’s back LEAVE decision hasn’t been good for his career ambitions

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Boris no longer favourite to be next CON leader. Osborne moves back into the top slot pic.twitter.com/cjP7op8adw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 If the vote is REMAIN the ex-mayor could be the scapegoat Yesterday the Daily Mail’s renowned columnist, Katie Hopkins had a big go at the ex-Mayor under the heading “I thought Boris was going to save Britain from the EU, instead he has turned out to be a big fat fraud.” In it she registered in…

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Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

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This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice. I quickly went into Betfair and got £11 at an average price of 81.59 without knowing a thing about him. I then Tweeted what I’d done and since then the price has moved in sharply. A little bit of time on Google later indeed confirmed that he was widely being talked about for…

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Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains

Survation phone survey continues the EURef polling divide: Remain 8% lead remains

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I’m off to London this after to record the first PB/Polling Matters TV Show in our new studios near Victoria. Keiran Pedley and I will, no doubt, spend a lot of time discussing the polling and trying to make sense of it. There’s also been news of a London EURef poll. London Evening Standard report on Opinium #EUREF poll in the capital https://t.co/t0Z3YwB4Aj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2016 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Andrea Leadsom, is having a good war and should be given a bigger role

Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Andrea Leadsom, is having a good war and should be given a bigger role

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She’s starting to look like a possible leadership contender A new YouGov referendum poll published overnight has both sides level-pegging – a marked change from last week’s 4% REMAIN lead. It is a sharp reminder that this could be very close and reinforces the big polling story of this election – the huge divide between phone and online. If it is a very tight outcome then there will be enormous pressure on David Cameron and we could have a new…

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How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

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Very early responders to poll invites might not be representative After YouGov’s methodology changes last week ICM have announced their own measures as we approach the big day. This is the firm’s Martin Boon he explains it on the pollster’s website: “..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate. Indeed, there is a remarkable consistency across our online polls, with big Leave leads being…

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