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What are Remain doing wrong, part. II.

6/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

ICM online EURef poll Leave 48 (+1) Remain 43 (-1) https://t.co/Nd46cXexFt pic.twitter.com/hbu5kh2cJV — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 Guest slot by Mortimer A few weeks ago I asserted here that focusing on the economy was a strategy that might not be working for Remain because a doubtful public no longer trust economic forecasts, and even amongst those who do, some – especially better off pensioners – might decide that a small economic correction was a price worth paying for greater…

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Some MPs are set to remind the electorate that referendums are advisory and not binding on Parliament

6/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Brexiteers will be delighted by Parliament exercising its Sovereign will. https://t.co/HXByQPBY7e pic.twitter.com/KqRwCtS6Mj — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 This makes an early election even more likely in the event of Brexit PB has learned Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learned. The MPs fear a post-Brexit government might negotiate a limited free trade deal with the EU, which they say…

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The latest YouGov poll is an Ode to Joy for Leave as Remain goes sub 70% on Betfair for the first time in nearly four weeks

5/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

New YouGov EURef poll Leave 45 (+4)Remain 41 (nc)https://t.co/EkGayKVe4r — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016 Remain goes sub 70% on Betfair for the first time in nearly 4 weeks pic.twitter.com/HASfGN4BM4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016 Latest TNS EU Ref poll Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5) Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/5 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016 Are we going to be due an EU Vow now? Our EU cousins want…

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Independence Day is going to be mentioned a lot in the run up to June 23rd

5/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Trailer for Independence Day: Resurgence which is released at the cinemas on June 23rd. Patriotism might be the last refuge of a scoundrel, but Leave would be stupid not to use it. This month has some great anniversaries if you’re British, Waterloo, The Queen’s official birthday, and of course tomorrow, the finest and most important military operation in human history, Operation Overlord*. Coupled with three out of the four home nations qualifying for football’s European Championships that start this Friday,…

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There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon

5/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Is Leave really saying if we vote to Leave we'll still be in the EU in May 2020? https://t.co/W7qzh1Z8rS pic.twitter.com/58KkahagVQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016 Only the churlish would deny it’s been a very good week for Leave, especially in the opinion polls, I think that’s in part because Leave have been focussing heavily on immigration, and moved away from the economy, where they are perceived to behind Remain. With another poll out tomorrow with Leave ahead, the narrative…

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The economics of discontent

5/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Does your income provide a comfortable lifestyle? Here’s what you said… pic.twitter.com/zz9AE41aKI — Moneywise (@Moneywiseonline) May 9, 2016 Alastair Meeks on why Leave is prospering Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time…

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New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old methodology Leave would be ahead

4/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Opinium Remain 43 (-1) Leave 41 (+1) but for new methodology Leave would be ahead https://t.co/A25xws4OWv pic.twitter.com/Api6tEZytX — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2016 Like the ORB and ICM phone polls, there appears to have been a marked shift towards Leave before the methodology change, what will also delight Leave is this, Opinium say ‘In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards…

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Guest slot: Politics after Brexit

4/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nick Palmer looks at what will really happen? It’s only quite recently that most serious commentators took the prospect of a Leave vote seriously. A consequence of that is that there has been very little serious analysis of what would happen next in political terms. Leave say we’ll feel free at last, Remain say the pound will plummet and we’ll risk an economic crisis. But what, specifically, will happen in terms of Government? Some suggestions: 1) Cameron will quit. It…

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