Corbyn found his voice on Thursday. Unfortunately, it was echoed by his supporters

Corbyn found his voice on Thursday. Unfortunately, it was echoed by his supporters

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One of the most remarkable aspects of Corbyn’s Labour is its attitude to the media Alistair Campbell would be turning in his grave were it not for the fact that he’s not dead. Not only did the Labour supporters booing the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg at Jeremy Corbyn’s speech on Thursday drive the wedge between party and media that bit further but it distracted from the main purpose of the event, which was for the Labour leader to add his weight…

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Michael Gove’s very big night out

Michael Gove’s very big night out

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ConHome leader June 2016 next leader survey Last night on Sky News we saw the current Tory leader, tonight shall we be seeing the next Tory leader? My betting strategy says no. Tonight Michael Gove, who has led the ConHome readers’ vote to be next Tory leader for the last three will be putting the Leave side on Sky News. Whilst I have many doubts about the ConHome polling, not least because it offers a range of options to the…

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What should the losers do next on 24 June?

What should the losers do next on 24 June?

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks says one way or another we shall have a referendum result in three weeks’ time and one side will have won and one side will have lost.  What next for the losing side? If Remain lose The way forward for Remain if they lose is straightforward, even if it is unpalatable to them.  It will be time to give up.  There should be no talk of reruns, no attempts to finesse the negotiations to…

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Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)

Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)

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Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), David Pollard (Lib Dem),…

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LEAVE closing the polling gap. Watch an examination by the PB/Polling Matters team in latest TV Show

LEAVE closing the polling gap. Watch an examination by the PB/Polling Matters team in latest TV Show

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In this week’s edition Keiran is joined by Rob Vance and Leo Barasi, where they discuss the latest EU polls – is Leave catching up? Keiran argues Leave should focus on immigration whilst Rob and Leo disagree  The also discuss the next Tory leader, is Michael Gove King or Kingmaker? Also discussed Why Bob the Builder is a classic C2 swing. The audio only version of the podcast is here   TSE

Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side

Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side

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The Sun front page from last Friday, after another poor set of net immigration figures for Cameron This referendum could boil down to Cameron v The Tory Press. If Cameron prevails, it could be good news for Corbyn. One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to…

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Remain appear to be winning the ground war but looks like Leave are winning the twitter war

Remain appear to be winning the ground war but looks like Leave are winning the twitter war

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Who is winning the EU referendum ground war? https://t.co/xxesPrwhy9 pic.twitter.com/WksVrowXTu — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 1, 2016 Matthew Goodwin has done some analysis and finds “The EU Referendum Events Project at the Universities of Kent and Nottingham, which is mapping campaign events in real time, shows Remain is far more active than Leave, the bulk of the activity on both sides is concentrated on London, and Brexit backers have yet to target northern England, which should be fertile ground for Eurosceptics.” Meanwhile over on twitter Twitter have…

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In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

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In past plebiscites polls tend to overstate the change option @StephenDFisher analysis finds https://t.co/OPcbNigYyC pic.twitter.com/Ji9p5o65Kl — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 1, 2016 Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have analysed past referenda in the UK, and they notice that We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there…

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