— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016
Only the churlish would deny it’s been a very good week for Leave, especially in the opinion polls, I think that’s in part because Leave have been focussing heavily on immigration, and moved away from the economy, where they are perceived to behind Remain. With another poll out tomorrow with Leave ahead, the narrative is changing, and that might not be to Leave’s advantage.
During the Scottish Independence referendum campaign it was said the famous YouGov poll that put Yes ahead came one week too early as it made the focus of the campaign what an Independent Scotland would look like, Yes weren’t able to convince a majority of their country, and they lost, as well as allowing the No campaign enough time to regroup.
As we see with Michael Gove’s interview this morning, it’s clear Remain can exploit any uncertainties and implausible plans by Leave, and David Cameron is famously an essay crisis Prime Minister, and these are the sort of situations he thrives on, As if Leave looks like winning, they won’t be able to focus solely on immigration, and move them back onto the economy, as they have to spend more time explaining what Brexit means for the UK economy and the jobs of voters.
On Thursday night, I spoke to someone from Vote Leave, and he observed he wouldn’t be confident until Leave were consistently 7% ahead in the polls, as most polls weren’t picking up voters from Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and ex-pats, which he thought would be worth around 1-2% to Remain, plus Leave were factoring in a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people end up backing the status quo, as that is what has happened in most plebiscites.
As the Duke of Wellington put it, “Hard pounding this, gentlemen; let’s see who will pound longest,” can Leave keep on pounding on immigration for the the next eighteen days? For Leave’s sake they better hope they aren’t Napoleon but The Seventh Coalition.