Embed from Getty Images “What did he mean by that?” Metternich is reported to have said on hearing of the death of Talleyrand, Napoleon’s wily diplomat. The same question will be asked in the Chancelleries of Europe and elsewhere should Britain vote to leave the EU. But perhaps it is a more pertinent question to ask if Britain votes to remain, especially if the winning margin is narrow – as seems likely – and certainly less than the winning margin…
Embed from Getty Images Just how enthused is the general public? For those inside the political bubble, whether as practitioners, supporters or lobbyists on the inside, or commentators and observers watching on, it’s easy to forget how little politics matters to an enormous number of people. One in three people didn’t vote at the last general election, more than half of Londoners and Welsh didn’t do so in May and only slightly fewer than half in Scotland and N Ireland….
ORB ONLINE poll Turnout adjusted Leave 55 (+4) Remain 45 (-4) All voters Leave 53 (+3) Remain (-3) FW Wed/Thur https://t.co/ydJ08al3wi — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 ORB Wisdom index Remain 52 Leave 48 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 Senior Labour IN sources are admitting the party's haemorrhaging votes badly to the Leave side in the #EUref . See my report @BBCNews at 6. — John Pienaar (@JPonpolitics) June 10, 2016 The ORB poll has seen a real shift…
Brexit might mean a leadership challenge for Corbyn via @georgeeaton https://t.co/A3Wh0opYPV pic.twitter.com/Q59jGGHxOg — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 When Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary says ‘The Remain campaign is facing the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum in two weeks’ time as it fails to reach traditional Labour voters’ it is clear the Remain campaign has issues. Whilst it is clear in the event of Leave winning, David Cameron will voluntarily resign or the Tory Party will revert back to Papua…
Buy Leadsom, sell Boris pic.twitter.com/zc7VLIUXrs — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 To outshine Boris is a real achievement, at 33/1 Andrea Leadsom is still value to be Cameron’s replacement. To overshadow Boris Johnson in a TV debate, is an achievement very few have managed. For that alone she should be worth backing. Her pre political career is something that will appeal to many, especially if the country wants someone who isn’t considered to be a career politician. Going back to…
Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9) Result of ward at last election (2013) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 2,277, 1,980 (37%) United Kingdom Independence Party 2,175, 1,684 (36%) Conservative 958, 784 (16%) Liberal Democrats 215, 187(4%) National Front 171 (3%) Green…
Voters think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population when in reality it’s 5% @IpsosMORI finds pic.twitter.com/5gmkamqAPC — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 This could help Leave win This one of my favourite bits of regular polling. Ipsos Mori have compared the perceptions of the voters to the reality. As we can see the voters’ think there’s more EU citizens here than there actually are. This might explain why Leave are focussing so heavily on immigration in the…
Henry G Manson on the chances of Corbyn’s successor being a woman The Democrats have become the first party in the USA to choose a female Presidential candidate. At 4/11 to become the next President, Clinton has a good chance to be the first female leader of the Free World. Others might shrug about how ground-breaking it is to have a Hillary Rodham Clinton return to the White House – but it is significant. 44 out of 44 of country’s…