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Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)

9/6/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9) Result of ward at last election (2013) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 2,277, 1,980 (37%) United Kingdom Independence Party 2,175, 1,684 (36%) Conservative 958, 784 (16%) Liberal Democrats 215, 187(4%) National Front 171 (3%) Green…

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The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave

9/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Voters think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population when in reality it’s 5% @IpsosMORI finds pic.twitter.com/5gmkamqAPC — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 This could help Leave win This one of my favourite bits of regular polling. Ipsos Mori have compared the perceptions of the voters to the reality. As we can see the voters’ think there’s more EU citizens here than there actually are. This might explain why Leave are focussing so heavily on immigration in the…

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Would President Hillary Clinton inspire Labour to choose a female leader?

9/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Henry G Manson on the chances of Corbyn’s successor being a woman The Democrats have become the first party in the USA to choose a female Presidential candidate. At 4/11 to become the next President, Clinton has a good chance to be the first female leader of the Free World. Others might shrug about how ground-breaking it is to have a Hillary Rodham Clinton return to the White House – but it is significant. 44 out of 44 of country’s…

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The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

8/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s show the Polling Matters team take a break from Brexit to discuss events across the pond. Keiran and Rob are joined by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua to discuss Clinton vs Trump, the states Trump must win to get to 270 electoral college votes and who each candidate might pick as their running mate. You can follow Jon-Christopher at @jcbua Audio only version is here Keiran Pedley

Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined

8/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders intends to fight to the convention https://t.co/GxidqTD8Q6 pic.twitter.com/w27IG4g96g — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 Latest Dem delegate count, after last nights results pic.twitter.com/605hfPFjMU — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 A sign of Trump's lack of electability? https://t.co/ZMGUEOspot pic.twitter.com/FDaQageYfJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 The punters at Betfair think Remain has the same chance of winning the #EURef as Clinton has winning The White House pic.twitter.com/RO9jPtbcxk — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8,…

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A proxy bet for a Leave victory

8/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Brexit might kill Scottish nationalism stone dead the same way devolution did. Sometimes when you think the value on a particular bet has gone, and you have to look for a proxy bet elsewhere, with with the best price on Leave winning at 13/5 perhaps the backing the 5/1 on the next Scottish independence referendum happening before 2020 could be a good proxy bet. Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been saying on several occasions, “Scottish independence would happen within two…

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Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

7/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Latest Betfair odds. Nearly £21 million matched so far this could be the biggest event in political betting history pic.twitter.com/IlPAYfGpJA — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016 What will the odds be after the Farage & Cameron TV show this evening? And what to make of this by Daniel Hannan? @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit — Joe Watts (@JoeWatts_) June 7, 2016…

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Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might experience a caTAFFstrophe in Wales

7/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Latest @YouGov poll suggests the potential for a caTAFFstrophe for Remain in Wales https://t.co/HQUHUNKFTw pic.twitter.com/aivZvkc5EM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016 Taking the 2/1 on Wales voting to Leave seems like the value option This morning there was an EU Referendum poll of Wales by YouGov, they found The two sides of the debate over the UK’s future in the EU are “dead level” in Wales, political expert Roger Scully has said. Remain and Leave are both on 41%, with…

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