The final three phone pollsBMG 6% REMAIN leadORB 8% REMAIN leadComRes 8% REMAIN ledJust Ipsos to come — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016 Full figures from ComRes phone pic.twitter.com/CNA2QaKcIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016
Only two phone polls have REMAIN winning Only a few hours to go and two more online polls, Opinium and TNS, are reporting LEAVE leads. This means that the latest surveys from all the online pollsters covering the referendum now have leads for LEAVE. With phone pollsters it is a different matter. Both ORB phone and BMG phone have relatively comfortable leads for REMAIN as the table shows. At 10pm we should see ComRes phone as well as the last…
And Corbyn drops to new low with LAB voters Farage gets the best @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings in final poll before referendum pic.twitter.com/qlmnU8DTOZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016 Corbyn's Ipsos satisfaction ratings from LAB voters at lowest point since he became leader pic.twitter.com/rx33FliGUE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016 Cameron's @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings amongst CON voters up a notch but still way behind where they were pic.twitter.com/rMbOwYUCdm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2016
Tomorrow is simply about the method and the timing Though our relationship with the EU may seem to be bookended by referendums, it’s politicians who’ve made the big calls. Edward Heath took us in to the EEC in 1973, and the nation endorsed that decision three summers later. And Gordon Brown and Ed Balls set us on the path to eventual Brexit via the five economic tests they set for joining the Euro [supposedly in the back of a New York taxi!] It’s…
Far too little consideration has yet gone into what the referendum result will mean for British politics, even though it is now just a few days away. If the polls are right – big if – Leave will win. It’s time to consider what that might mean. David Cameron’s authority would be dust. He has staked everything on the referendum and if Leave win he would have lost. While many Conservative members remain well-disposed to him, including many who support…
The direction of travel is all one way Polling analysis where you have plenty of surveys is all about direction of travel and there’s a very clear message from the latest referendum surveys – it’s getting tighter and LEAVE’s position is improving. Survation REMAIN lead down from 3% on Sunday to 1% today YouGov LEAVE retakes lead in latest poll after being behind on Sunday ORB phone Amogst all voters REMAIN gap down to less than 3% Opinium Level pegging…
Yes Nuneaton will be key once again Back at GE2015 I think I can claim to have been the first to have identified Nuneaton, amongst the seats likely to declare early, as being the one to look forward to. This was a key target for Labour and a win would have suggested that it could be heading to win most seats. As it turned the town was the first key marginal to declare and Tory success in holding on proved…
Still to come the big National Centre survey – an academic project led by Professor John Curtice. This is embargoed until midnight although it has been widely reported showing a 6% REMAIN lead.