The Nuneaton declaration, at about 2am, looks set to be the first big pointer as to whether we are IN or OUT
Yes Nuneaton will be key once again
Back at GE2015 I think I can claim to have been the first to have identified Nuneaton, amongst the seats likely to declare early, as being the one to look forward to. This was a key target for Labour and a win would have suggested that it could be heading to win most seats.
As it turned the town was the first key marginal to declare and Tory success in holding on proved to encapsulate the story of that historic night.
So ahead of Thursday night I’ve been looking through the list of early declaring local authorities to try to identify the EURef version of Nuneaton and I’ve discovered that it is the Nuneaton and Bedworth local authority.
The counts will mostly be in local authority areas which generally are larger than parliamentary constituencies. There were 650 of the latter in May 2015 while on Thursday night there will be 382 counts of which 380 will be local authority based.
The referendum, of course, is about overall national vote shares not seats so what I’ve been seeking are areas where the demographic make up is broadly in the middle of the national list and where the estimated declaration time is quite early.
This article from Open Europe has been particularly helpful.
Of the demographic factors that we know suggest a desire for Brexit Nuneaton & Bedworth ranks in 203rd place out of the 380 and its electorate size is almost exactly in the middle.
Maybe we’ll be able to go to bed after Nuneaton or maybe it will indicate that it is going to be a cliff hanger.