politicalbetting.com – Page 1067 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain’s advantage

24/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected. — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 24, 2016 Remain blame game now in full swing – usually a reliable indicator of defeat. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) June 24, 2016 Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in – https://t.co/dpPxRbJ5Ko — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) June 24, 2016 Brexiteers think Labour are conceding Wales —…

If Sunderland is representative of Labour areas in England, then I’m calling this for Leave

23/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sunderland, #EUref result: Remain: 38.7% (51,930) Leave: 61.3% (82,394) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 23, 2016 We are one good Leave result away from crossover on Betfair pic.twitter.com/ieKK8FRJJM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 "We are much tighter than we thought at the beginning of the night" @philipjcowley says after Sunderland result. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 23, 2016 2.4 per cent fall in sterling in just seconds…. https://t.co/nAdXDVRDNX — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) June 23, 2016

No wonder Nigel Farage is unconceding – Big moves on Betfair – Update Newcastle not good for Remain

23/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016 Leave odds tumbling on Betfair pic.twitter.com/7nq1y7IPfe — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 Newcastle not good for Remain pic.twitter.com/yrYK4Jxekb — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 TSE

As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it but turnout is expected to be high

23/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Unsurprisingly Leave have hit 15 on Betfair but does high turnout favour Leave? UKIP leader Nigel Farage says it "looks like 'Remain' will edge it" #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 23, 2016 . @Arron_banks on Nigel Farage's early concession of a Remain win: "He doesn't know anything." pic.twitter.com/1ijwSgUBFY — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 23, 2016 YouGov #EURef on the day poll: Remain 52% Leave 48%. Not an exit poll. This type of poll was fairly out at GE2015…

Use this specially designed referendum widget to follow events as they unfold

23/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Thanks to Roberto Robles, Global Counsel (@robertoroblesf) for this.

Why the betting has often seemed so out of line with the polls – a possible explanation

23/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Barely a day has gone by in the past few months when I have not been asked why the referendum betting odds were/are so out of line with the polling. Surely , it has been said, that if the polls have it level pegging or even LEAVE leads then why has REMAIN stayed as such a strong odds-on favourite. I usually try to answer that punters are taking a much broader view than just the voting polling taking into account,…

The final polling chart

23/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If LEAVE does manage to win it'll be a far far bigger polling disaster than at GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016

A special referendum election morning PB/Polling Matters podcast

23/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In this shorter than usual version of the show, Keiran Pedley spends 15 minutes breaking down the eve of referendum polls and giving his thoughts on the campaign, what to expect on the day and what happens next.