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Anatomy of the biggest night of political betting ever when in 4 hours the 93% favourite lost

25/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How the drama unfolded YouGov on the day survey (NOT an exit poll) being published on Sky News at 10pm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 YouGov on the day poll has REMAIN 4% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 REMAIN now 93% chance on Betfair — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/746087771509497860 REMAIN now 90% chance on Betfair — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 Ipsos MORI has REMAIN 8% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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David Herdson looks at the post-referendum purpose of UKIP

24/6/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Your next mission, should you choose to accept it … is what? The fruitcakes have taken over the asylum. UKIP, which well under a decade ago was a fringe party – it polled only 3.1% in the 2010 general election – has achieved the purpose for which it was created. Those critics who laughed at the party’s failure to win more than one seat last year should reflect that electoral success is only a means to an end, and is…

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Granny storming the barricades

24/6/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Richard Nabavi on the post-BREXIT world You know the drill. It’s a scenario which has played out many times in countries around the world, sometimes peaceably, sometimes with much violence: the old elite is overthrown, an iconoclastic movement tears down the old structures and grabs power. Regimes and institutions which looked as though they would last for ever are suddenly overthrown, with breath-taking speed. What seemed permanent vanishes in front of you. Old certainties no longer apply: suddenly, a new…

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The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buyer’s remorse

24/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It seems many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/746318754246762496 https://twitter.com/tmlbk/status/746327994285842432 Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt — Ben Thompson (@BenThompsonTV) June 24, 2016 Warning. Vehicle reversing. pic.twitter.com/sYTlzIzjNa — Sam (@sjcstuff) June 24, 2016 UK now predicted to lose its triple A credit rating. You know, the one we supposedly endured austerity to keep. So that was worth it — gabyhinsliff…

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Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

24/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Could we have 2 main party leadership contests at once? It has been on the cards for some time that the unexpected winner of Labour’s leadership contest, Mr. Corbyn, last September could face difficulties in the period following the referendum. This is even more so given the outcome. It was always going to be tricky for someone who has opposed the EU in the past to head a pro-EU party in the referendum. Many say his heart was not in…

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Cameron resigns

24/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The CON leadership contest begins

… And the winners of the EUref polling race look set to be TNS and Opinium

24/6/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Remember the final polls. pic.twitter.com/fJyfReJMZT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2016 Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads. The latter is very much on a roll. It was the most accurate online poll at…

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Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

24/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Remain’s perfomance so far is not consistent with a Remain victory It is literally 50-50 as things stand. Problem for Remain is that if they’re going to win they needed to be ahead at this stage — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 24, 2016 ITV News is forecasting 75% probability of Brexit, of UK voting to leave EU. This is huge. — Robert Peston (@Peston) June 24, 2016 @chrishanretty has updated his forecast and given Remain a 0% chance of success…

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