The gloves come off in the Tory race

The gloves come off in the Tory race

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The @Telegraph puts the boot into Gove. https://t.co/szMhu8HXbD pic.twitter.com/g3WrnNrhSr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2016 This is by a fellow CON MP The article is by Ben Wallace, MP for Wyre and Preston North. He writes:- “..From the minute Michael Gove came on board with Boris’s leadership campaign, things started to go wrong. There was a leak a day in the press, starting with the camera crews at Boris’s house in Oxfordshire on the first day and ending with…

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The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

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Pictures: First picture odds from Stan James, second picture, odds from SkyBet There’s a couple of markets up on when Article 50 will be triggered, if you’re lucky to have a Stan James account, I wonder backing the any other outcome other option. It is effectively a bet on Article 50 being triggered in 2018 or later, not at all. Now 2018 might sound far away, but we’re less than 18 months away from 2018, and given the gravity of…

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Ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer, looks at what the party might do

Ex-LAB MP, Nick Palmer, looks at what the party might do

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What will Labour do? If recent weeks have taught us anything, it’s that forecasting is a mug’s game – there may be pundits here who have always been right, but I can’t think of any – certainly not me. So the wise thing for reputations is to keep your head down. But a lot of the comments here misread how many Labour people think, which has implications for those who bet on Labour outcomes. So some thoughts, partly to complement…

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Next Chancellor of the Exchequer betting

Next Chancellor of the Exchequer betting

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Picture: Note there are other candidates available in this market, this is merely a screen grab of the leading candidates. Backing Chris Grayling as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer at 12/1 looks like a good bet. Ladbrokes have put back up their market on the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, given recent events whomever becomes Prime Minister will likely be appointing a new Chancellor, although there are stories that were Michael Gove to become Prime Minister, he’d retain George…

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It would be a mistake for May to become leader & PM without a membership election

It would be a mistake for May to become leader & PM without a membership election

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Remember Brown who was spared that inconvenience? There’s said to be talks taking place amongst “senior Tories” that if May wins convincingly in the first MP ballot on Tuesday then the other contenders should be asked to step aside so that the Home Secretary could start her job immediately. It sounds seductive but it would be a serious mistake. The most recent precedent was Gordon Brown’s elevation to the party leadership and Number 10 in 2007. In order to prevent…

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10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest

10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest

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TELEGRAPH: Matt in college #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/rTYavnuJ57 — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) July 1, 2016 What to bear in mind when anticipating developments 1. This is not Leave v Remain again We have just been through a highly divisive referendum campaign and apart from the country itself, nothing was more divided than the Conservative Party. However, divisions can be, and are being, overplayed. Some in the media would have you believe that the Tories are split into two immutably hostile blocks. They’re…

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The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance to put him out of his misery.

The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance to put him out of his misery.

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  Don Brind argues against the Labour leader stepping down in favour of a unity candidate. Jeremy Corbyn must be ousted by the members if Labour’s credibility with the voters is to have any chance of being rescued. The idea of him standing down in favour of a unity candidate is understandable – but wrong. The evidence from the polling and from local reports is that his support is eroding fast. I am convinced that he can and will be beaten…

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A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve

A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve

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What are the chances of her doing it? On May 25h while perusing the Betfair next CON leader odds I saw that Andrea Leadson was available at 90 and immediately took the few pounds that was available that price. It then slipped down to 65, 55 46 nd 44 and I took that as well. My next bet on Leadsom was at 9.31am, just after Cameron had resigned, when I got 65. The result is that I’m sitting on a…

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