According to the betting markets this is a much tighter race than at the start of previous CON membership ballots

According to the betting markets this is a much tighter race than at the start of previous CON membership ballots

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The Tory leadership battle: A lot can happen over the next 8 weeks Until the 2001 CON leadership race the final decision was taken by MPs and there was no role for the members. So if the current battle had been held under pre-2001 rules Theresa May would now be moving into Downing Street. Under William Hague’s 1997-2001 leadership the party rules were changed so that members could be involved for the first time. Since then three leaders have been…

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For Andrea Leadsom the scrutiny has only just started

For Andrea Leadsom the scrutiny has only just started

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She’s got to be more convincing There’s such a contrast between the two women who’ll fight it out over the next eight weeks to become prime minister. May is well-known, very experienced and has started her campaign with a confidence that suggests that she’s been planning this career move for years. During the Cameron years she always maintained a detachment and was often accused of bring on maneuvers. Yet she’s never gone so far that she’s been open to the…

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And to bring us all down to earth tonight’s Local By-elections

And to bring us all down to earth tonight’s Local By-elections

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Mostyn (Lab defence) on Conwy Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Independents 250, 235, 72, 38, 33(46%) Labour 436 (28%) Conservatives 243, 199 (20%) Liberal Democrats 131 (6%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 30,147 (46%) LEAVE 35,357 (54%) on a turnout of 72% Candidates duly nominated: Penelope Appleton (Lib Dem), Richard Enston…

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In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Palin

In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Palin

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"My overall approach to Putin -absolutely tell him he needs to abide by internatioal law" PM candidate Leadsom to me https://t.co/lzTQcwzgBw — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 7, 2016 The similarities with the former Alaska Governor are striking argues Keiran Pedley and therefore Theresa May is surely Britain’s next Prime Minister. Video has emerged this afternoon of an interview with Conservative candidate for Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom and Sky News Political Editor Faisal Islam. Although it is not as bad as…

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Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

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Extraordinary 90 day EURef betting chart on the £120m Betfair market. LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th pic.twitter.com/Fpr06yxTvB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016 And on the final day Peak REMAIN 2210 June 23rd pic.twitter.com/A2Ot15QFyX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016

Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting – bad news for Gove

Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting – bad news for Gove

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If May does become PM then she can expect a polling honeymoon There’s a new national phone poll out from Survation which has CON 36%, LAB 32%, UKIP 12% and LD 9%. The poll also asked favourability questions about the five who were the Tory leadership race until Tuesday evening. The figures are in the chart above and show Theresa May in a totally dominating position with Michael Gove trailing badly. We are, of course, in the first stage of…

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On the day Chilcot was published the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at the legacy of Iraq & asks whether Theresa May is now unstoppable

On the day Chilcot was published the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at the legacy of Iraq & asks whether Theresa May is now unstoppable

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran and Rob discuss the legacy of Iraq on British politics and the latest on the Tory leadership contest. This episode includes a detailed discussion on recent YouGov polling that shows Theresa May in a commanding position and Keiran argues that the Tories should consider crowning the Home Secretary as Prime Minister early. Meanwhile, the team discuss whether a Labour MP that supported the Iraq War can really hope to lead the Labour Party…

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The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more from Leadsom’s past

The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more from Leadsom’s past

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Survation survey of 1000+ CON councillors finds May 46.2% Leadsom 21.8 Gove 5.1 DK/Refused 22.8 A statement from the May campaign .@TheresaMay2016 trying to kill off rumours her backers are planning vote for #Gove tomorrow to knock #Leadsom out pic.twitter.com/TwjWK3HgSK — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 6, 2016 More on Leadsom Attacks on Leadsom conitnue. Blasted for ‘extremist’ web posts on sex outside marriage and attacking gay adoption https://t.co/vrlhBVxniZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2016