The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more from Leadsom’s past

The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more from Leadsom’s past

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Survation survey of 1000+ CON councillors finds May 46.2% Leadsom 21.8 Gove 5.1 DK/Refused 22.8 A statement from the May campaign .@TheresaMay2016 trying to kill off rumours her backers are planning vote for #Gove tomorrow to knock #Leadsom out pic.twitter.com/TwjWK3HgSK — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 6, 2016 More on Leadsom Attacks on Leadsom conitnue. Blasted for ‘extremist’ web posts on sex outside marriage and attacking gay adoption https://t.co/vrlhBVxniZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2016

YouGov CON member ratings of the three still in the race raise questions over Gove

YouGov CON member ratings of the three still in the race raise questions over Gove

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But very good for May In its recent party membership polling YouGov has introduced a ratings question with a simple format “Generally speaking, do you have a positive or negative opinion of the following people?” In the context of the fight for Number 10 this might have quite a bearing. What’s interesting is to look at responses based on how those sampled voted in the referendum. May rates at 89%-2% amongst remainers but still a respectable 67%-17% with leavers. Leadsom,…

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Important to remember that the role of CON MPs is to decide the shortlist – not who becomes next leader

Important to remember that the role of CON MPs is to decide the shortlist – not who becomes next leader

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The final decision is taken by the members in a postal ballot The CON race has moved on fast following tonight’s first round of MP voting and the decision of Crabb to drop out and back May. The next stage is Thursday’s second round of MP voting to decide the shortlist of two that will go to the members. Certainly the Home Secretary is in an enormously strong position coming out of the first round so well and now having…

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As expected Fox drops out

As expected Fox drops out

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UPDATE Crabbe pulls out and backs May "I asked for nothing, she offered nothing" says #StephenCrabb on meeting #TheresaMay to give #ToryLeadership support https://t.co/ln7vnZOxD1 — Sky News (@SkyNews) July 5, 2016

The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

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Could there be an effort to see that she doesn’t make the final 2? One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday. The…

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May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

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What a contrast to the Conhome poll – The Leadsomites will be devastated  by this poll Exc: Times/YouGov Tory members poll In final round, May beats Leadsom by 32 points. May 63%Leadsom 31% pic.twitter.com/txR2opHGPR — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 4, 2016 YouGov / Times poll of Tory members. May wins in EVERY category sometimes by 50+ points pic.twitter.com/FbvH8nMwJn — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 4, 2016 And it looks like Michael Gove trashed his reputation for nothing YouGov Tory…

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Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

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Will we get the same picture from YouGov? ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on. The results were:- Leadsom 38% May 37% Gove 13% Crabb 6% Fox 5% Whatever this looks very close between May and Leadsom who between secured 75% of the support. We do know that CON…

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