The 100/1 bet on the next Labour leader that quite a few of us have taken this last week

The 100/1 bet on the next Labour leader that quite a few of us have taken this last week

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At 50/1 Shadow Justice Secretary, Richard Burgon, remains value to be the next Labour leader Earlier on this week I decided to back Richard Burgon to be the next Labour leader at 100/1. My logic was that the Labour party is continually moving strongly towards the Corbynite left, as evidenced by the NEC election results and that the polls indicate that despite the disastrous personal polling that Corbyn has, and the mass no confidence that Labour MPs have in Corbyn,…

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New ComRes Indy/S Mirror poll finds Corbyn a staggering 46% behind Theresa May on net favourability

New ComRes Indy/S Mirror poll finds Corbyn a staggering 46% behind Theresa May on net favourability

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As the table shows May is a net plus 18% while Corbyn a net minus 28%. 80% of Conservative voters are favourable towards Theresa May, compared to 60% who are favourable towards David Cameron and 55% who are favourable towards Boris Johnson. · 43% of 2015 Labour voters are favourable towards Jeremy Corbyn, compared to 30% who are unfavourable towards him. 17% are favourable towards Owen Smith, against 25% who are unfavourable towards him. · With 76% of Britons unfavourable…

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According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is going to be invoked later rather than earlier

According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is going to be invoked later rather than earlier

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One of the betting markets I got into in the week after the referendum was when would Article 50 be invoked. My view was and remains is that this is going to take longer than many anticipated. I got 5/2 that it would be after the end of 2017 and I’ve got a bit on Betfair which has a cut off date for its final time segment of June 30th 2017. There are so many hurdles ahead not least a…

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Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

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For Hillary and Donald, the fringe candidates matter US presidential elections are always two-horse races. No candidate from any party other than the Republicans or Democrats has won the White House in over 150 years (which is to say, not since the Republicans became a major force), and nor has any even come close. Even Roosevelt in 1912 – by a huge distance the most successful third-party candidate in that time – fell a very long way short of defeating…

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LAB leadership round-up on the afternoon the Appeal Court said the new members could NOT vote

LAB leadership round-up on the afternoon the Appeal Court said the new members could NOT vote

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Labour CAN Ban 130,000 Members From Voting In Leadership Contest, Rules Court of Appeal https://t.co/2t3oQZPM73 — Owen Bennett (@owenjbennett) August 12, 2016 Owen Smith now 13% chance on Betfair. After initial court ruling he was at 6% pic.twitter.com/fQ5sd6Ci76 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2016 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/764109997223448576 David Cowling's analysis. How different LAB leaders were doing in polls 10 months in. pic.twitter.com/NwhCYyOtFg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2016

This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,164 (37% unchanged), Labour 1,029 (33% -7%), Conservative 639 (21% +9%), Socialist Labour Party 131 (4% +3%), Green Party 94 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrat 48 (2% -3%) SNP lead of 135 (4%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lab to SNP Labour GAIN from SNP on the sixth count Renfrew South and Gallowhill (Lab defence) on Renfrewshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,309…

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Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college

Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college

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PoliticalWire How things have changed dramatically in just three weeks from the conventions With so much going on in the Labour party battle the fight for the White House has got sidelined. Things have moved very sharply away from Trump since the conventions and the challenge he now faces is enormous. As we all know this is about separate state battles and not the overall aggregate vote shares and the above map on the excellent Political Wire site shows the…

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Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 691, 1,374 E (40%) Scottish National Party 1,624, 265 (37%) Conservatives 614 (12%) Liberal Democrats 246 (5%) Independent 4% Socialist Labour Party 81 (1%) Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 51 (1%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 38,394 (57%) LEAVE 29,110…

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