This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast with Tory psephologist Lord (Robert) Hayward

This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast with Tory psephologist Lord (Robert) Hayward

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Lord Hayward is well known and respected in Westminster for his expertise on psephology and regularly briefs the media on issues around elections and polling. Keiran and Robert sat down on the weekend after the elections to discuss what happened. Topics covered include the importance of national projected vote share, UKIP’s rise in Wales, the SNP’s failure to win a majority in Scotland and Ruth Davidson’s success in becoming Leader of the Opposition and the London Mayoral race. We even…

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Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

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It’s not the falling that kills you; it’s the landing Bafflement and incomprehension are unlikely to be in short supply for Scottish Labour. Each time they hit a new low, the belief is that things can now only get better. With rare exceptions, the belief has continually been wrong. So again this week. For the fourth election in a row, Scottish Labour lost seats. The progression of their seat totals since the first election to Holyrood, in 1999, now reads:…

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The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

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But Corbyn may well be safe until 2020 The British electorate rarely fail to surprise. It shouldn’t be possible to produce elections where all are losers and most are simultaneously winners and yet that’s precisely what happened. Taking the British results party by party (I’m excluding Northern Ireland, which is a different game and for which counting is still ongoing). Labour Sadiq won. That was the minimum requirement and was comfortably met. Labour now has the politician with the biggest…

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The big shock in London: turnout up from 37% to 44%

The big shock in London: turnout up from 37% to 44%

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As we wait for the almost certain announcement that Sadiq Khan has been elected London mayor the big news is that turnout has been about 44%. This is totally out of line with what most pundits were predicting with the general view that the fewer the total votes the better it was for the Tories. So the news that is emerging that it will about the 44% comes as quite a shock. Maybe the nature of the CON campaign and…

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Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

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Key moments of the #Elections2016 so far. Live updates here: https://t.co/ZUqdq49lFc https://t.co/PwHiCCzPlw — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 6, 2016 We now have a good bank of results, which while incomplete allow us to draw some conclusions.  So what conclusions can we draw? The pollsters have either made the right corrections from last year or have been lucky The local election results so far in are very much in line with the broad thrust of the opinion polls we’ve been…

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Elections update as LAB looks set to move to third in Scotland but did better than expected elsewhere

Elections update as LAB looks set to move to third in Scotland but did better than expected elsewhere

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Not since 1910 has Labour finished third in Scotland. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 6, 2016 Scotland: results suggest battleground shifting from left v right to nationalist v unionist https://t.co/ZIYmd4bryo pic.twitter.com/1WiXD2CdEq — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) May 6, 2016 One more reflection: it's logistically difficult, but also obvious that Ruth Davidson should be the next Tory leader. — Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) May 6, 2016 In London the Tory aftermath starts even before any results are in Even though the London result…

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Election night 2016: The news continues to roll in

Election night 2016: The news continues to roll in

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After 500 English Council seats declared out of 2500, Labour down 13, Cons up 6, Libs down 2, UKIP up 14, green up 2, indies down 7 — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 6, 2016 Vote change in Sheffield Westminster by election pic.twitter.com/UZipOaIcCI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 If the betting's right there's a 97% chance that @KTHopkins will run naked up Regent Street with a sausage up her bum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 Labour has…

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For the election night thread a special family picture

For the election night thread a special family picture

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I love this election picture from Nelson in Lancashire in the 1920s. The man on the left in the wagon is my grand-father, Charles Smithson, who went onto to become the town’s mayor. Tonight we should be getting part of the English local results as well as many of the Scottish and Welsh parliament results. The balance of the local elections will come tomorrow along with the PCC elections in England and, last of all, the London results on which…

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