One of the betting markets I got into in the week after the referendum was when would Article 50 be invoked. My view was and remains is that this is going to take longer than many anticipated. I got 5/2 that it would be after the end of 2017 and I’ve got a bit on Betfair which has a cut off date for its final time segment of June 30th 2017.
There are so many hurdles ahead not least a court case planned for October seeking a ruling that specific legislation would be required rather than it being carried out on Royal Prerogative. If it does require a new law you can see the legislation getting bogged down in both houses of parliament.
The PM has ruled out anything before 2017 anyway and its likely that ministers could face a battle with whatever form appears to be coming out of the informal talks.
The point about article 50 is that formal negotiations are not possible until it has been invoked which puts the country seeking to get out in a poor bargaining position.
At the moment I’m confident about my Betfair bets.