politicalbetting.com – Page 1043 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Introducing the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings – a new development by the site

16/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

First survey has Corbyn ahead of Trump, Putin AND Cameron As many will know I am a great fan of leader ratings which I believe are a better pointer to political outcomes than voting intention numbers. There are several different formats. Ipsos-MORI ask about “satisfaction”, Opinium goes for straight approval number while the standard YouGov question is asking the sample whether those named are doing well or badly. The format I like best and the one which the standard in…

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Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?

15/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ex-UKIP leader Farage on Vladimir Putin’s Russia Today He appears to be planning a FOURTH return to the UKIP leadership When Farage quit the UKIP leadership many were speculating that this was not the last we would see him flying the UKIP flag and there’ve been hints that this is the case. he In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader if Brexit is not delivered as he would like. He added…

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Don Brind says there’s no solid evidence for making Corbyn odds on favourite. He could lose.

15/8/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Momentum might being beaten at their own game Back in 2007 I emailed Mike Smithson: “You should advise your readers: ‘don’t bet on an election unless you understand the voting system’” At the time the pollsters and the bookies were making Alan Johnson favourite to become Labour deputy leader. I was a member of Harriet Harman’s campaign and I knew how much effort was going into getting second preferences from other candidates. In the event, the second preferences from John…

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If elected, will Hillary or the Donald be impeached?

14/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Will one of them become the first POTUS to be successfully impeached? Paddy Power have a market up on if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be impeached and resign during their first term. I have a few concerns with this bet, for example the impeachment process against Richard Nixon never completed to full impeachment, as Nixon resigned as President before the House of Representatives formally impeached him, so if something similar happened, this bet wouldn’t pay out, also that…

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The Tories set to re-introduce Fox hunting with hounds if the International Trade Secretary doesn’t wind his neck in

14/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Liam Fox and Boris Johnson locked in feud over who controls Britain's foreign policy https://t.co/lmXFdd3A7O — Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) August 13, 2016 Taking the 10/1 on Liam Fox being the first cabinet minister to leave the cabinet looks tempting. Today’s Sunday Telegraph has a story which says Liam Fox and Boris Johnson are locked in a bitter Whitehall feud over who controls key parts of Britain’s foreign policy, a leaked letter seen by The Telegraph reveals. Just weeks after the two men joined…

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The 100/1 bet on the next Labour leader that quite a few of us have taken this last week

14/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

At 50/1 Shadow Justice Secretary, Richard Burgon, remains value to be the next Labour leader Earlier on this week I decided to back Richard Burgon to be the next Labour leader at 100/1. My logic was that the Labour party is continually moving strongly towards the Corbynite left, as evidenced by the NEC election results and that the polls indicate that despite the disastrous personal polling that Corbyn has, and the mass no confidence that Labour MPs have in Corbyn,…

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New ComRes Indy/S Mirror poll finds Corbyn a staggering 46% behind Theresa May on net favourability

13/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As the table shows May is a net plus 18% while Corbyn a net minus 28%. 80% of Conservative voters are favourable towards Theresa May, compared to 60% who are favourable towards David Cameron and 55% who are favourable towards Boris Johnson. · 43% of 2015 Labour voters are favourable towards Jeremy Corbyn, compared to 30% who are unfavourable towards him. 17% are favourable towards Owen Smith, against 25% who are unfavourable towards him. · With 76% of Britons unfavourable…

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According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is going to be invoked later rather than earlier

13/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the betting markets I got into in the week after the referendum was when would Article 50 be invoked. My view was and remains is that this is going to take longer than many anticipated. I got 5/2 that it would be after the end of 2017 and I’ve got a bit on Betfair which has a cut off date for its final time segment of June 30th 2017. There are so many hurdles ahead not least a…

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