As LAB members prepare to vote a reminder of the demographic splits at GE2015
Ipsos MORI And the Sept 2015 LAB leadership result
Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair
Putting the current ratings numbers into a historical context With a lot of the non-LAB leadership politics discussion being on May’s polling honeymoon I thought I’d look back at the old MORI ratings to see how other new PM’s were doing at this stage in their occupancy of Number 10. To its great credit Ipsos MORI keeps excellent historical records and has a whole section devoted to old polling data. So compiling the above has been easy. Interestingly Mrs. Thatcher…
Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Polling Matters TV Show
Hardly a day’s gone by without some new UK poll much of it focused on the new PM and, of course, the Smth-Corbyn battle for the Labour leadership. On top of that WH2016 gets closer and the question is being asked of whether a Hillary Clinton is now inevitable. Discussing this with Keiran Pedley is pollster Rob Vance and polling analyst Leo Barasi. On this week’s podcast the team continue the new format of the show. Each guest picks a…
Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats
Pelham (Lab defence) on Gravesham Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,792, 1,708, 1,625 (50%) Conservatives 1,246, 1,131, 1,038 (35%) Green Party 525 (15%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 18,876 (35%) LEAVE 35,643 (65%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Conrad Broadley (Con), Emma Foreman (Eng Dem), Marna Gilligan (Green), Gary Harding (UKIP), Sharan Virk (Lib Dem), Jenny Wallace (Lab)…
Cyclefree on the perils of hubris
“It’s the economy, stupid” has been the default position for electoral campaigns for seemingly forever. It was fundamentally the basis on which Remain campaigned. It appears to be the reason why the Tories are confident that a Corbyn-led Labour party cannot win, not just because of Corbyn himself but because it will be easy to point at how Labour will ruin the economy. But is this truism always true? During our post-referendum summer languor, it may be worth looking at…
The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence
Her current LAB alternative does not Yesterday’s shock leader satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI that had May with net a positive from LAB voters while Corbyn was given a net negative by the same segment was totally unprecedented. Generally people respond to leader ratings on party basis. The numbers come on top of a series of leader ratings which have been very good for the new PM and very bad for Corbyn who is battling to hang on to his…
The WH2016 TV ad war: How Clinton is outspending Trump in the key swing states
NBC News data
UKIP slips to just 6% with Ipsos MORI as CON moves up 9% to 45%
Latest Ipsos MORI voting has UKIP dropping to just 6%CON 45 +9LAB 34 -1LD 7 -4UKIP 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2016 May moves to a staggering 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn May moves to net 68% @IpsosMORI ratings over Corbyn pic.twitter.com/7HE8yLKPTD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2016 An amazing phone poll just out sees some dramatic changes. CON up to 45% but probably the most significant is that the leader-troubled UKIP is down to…