The betting strategy if for some reason Trump or Clinton aren’t candidates on election day

The betting strategy if for some reason Trump or Clinton aren’t candidates on election day

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What to do if Trump or Clinton aren’t the candidates on election day? Paddy Power have markets up on whether Trump or Clinton won’t be their party’s Presidential candidate on election day. After all there has been speculation about Trump quitting the race (or the GOP trying to replace him.) But if for whatever reason Trump isn’t the candidate on 8/11/2016 if you wanted to bet on this market, the better strategy might be to back the likely replacements for…

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Labour’s most senior elected politician, Sadiq Khan, comes out strongly against Corbyn

Labour’s most senior elected politician, Sadiq Khan, comes out strongly against Corbyn

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With LAB leadership voting stating on Monday Sadiq Khan makes his view clear in Observer pic.twitter.com/ZokjSbmROM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2016 Sadiq's endorsement of Smith will increase pressure on Burnham to do same (plenty of his former supporters backing Corbyn). — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) August 20, 2016 This is first time Sadiq has called for Corbyn to go. But he was critical of him throughout mayoral campaign. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) August 20, 2016

Mr. Corbyn is fortunate that LAB’s selectorate doesn’t appear to prioritise winning the next election

Mr. Corbyn is fortunate that LAB’s selectorate doesn’t appear to prioritise winning the next election

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https://twitter.com/RaianDavies/status/766537211625938944 His NATO comments should be fatal but they aren’t Voting packs start going out on Monday in Labour’s election in which Mr. Corbyn is attempting to hang onto his job in the face of a challenge from Owen Smith who was almost a total unknown a month ago. Don Brind has been arguably strongly here that the election could be a lot closer than the general perception. In the absence of new selectorate polling this is hard to assess….

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The polls might still be overstating Labour

The polls might still be overstating Labour

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Disillusionment and disengagement rather than defection is the danger The Ipsos-Mori poll this week contained a paradox. On the one hand, Labour’s headline voting intention share was 34%, some way up on their General Election performance. On the other, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings were awful. His overall score of -34 was bad enough but his net rating with Labour’s own voters, at -7%, was considerably lower than Theresa May’s approval rating of some +16% with those same voters. In fact…

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Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair

Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair

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Putting the current ratings numbers into a historical context With a lot of the non-LAB leadership politics discussion being on May’s polling honeymoon I thought I’d look back at the old MORI ratings to see how other new PM’s were doing at this stage in their occupancy of Number 10. To its great credit Ipsos MORI keeps excellent historical records and has a whole section devoted to old polling data. So compiling the above has been easy. Interestingly Mrs. Thatcher…

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Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

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Hardly a day’s gone by without some new UK poll much of it focused on the new PM and, of course, the Smth-Corbyn battle for the Labour leadership. On top of that WH2016 gets closer and the question is being asked of whether a Hillary Clinton is now inevitable. Discussing this with Keiran Pedley is pollster Rob Vance and polling analyst Leo Barasi. On this week’s podcast the team continue the new format of the show. Each guest picks a…

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Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

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Pelham (Lab defence) on Gravesham Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,792, 1,708, 1,625 (50%) Conservatives 1,246, 1,131, 1,038 (35%) Green Party 525 (15%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 18,876 (35%) LEAVE 35,643 (65%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Conrad Broadley (Con), Emma Foreman (Eng Dem), Marna Gilligan (Green), Gary Harding (UKIP), Sharan Virk (Lib Dem), Jenny Wallace (Lab)…

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