Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

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Pelham (Lab defence) on Gravesham Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,792, 1,708, 1,625 (50%) Conservatives 1,246, 1,131, 1,038 (35%) Green Party 525 (15%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 18,876 (35%) LEAVE 35,643 (65%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Conrad Broadley (Con), Emma Foreman (Eng Dem), Marna Gilligan (Green), Gary Harding (UKIP), Sharan Virk (Lib Dem), Jenny Wallace (Lab)…

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Cyclefree on the perils of hubris

Cyclefree on the perils of hubris

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“It’s the economy, stupid” has been the default position for electoral campaigns for seemingly forever. It was fundamentally the basis on which Remain campaigned. It appears to be the reason why the Tories are confident that a Corbyn-led Labour party cannot win, not just because of Corbyn himself but because it will be easy to point at how Labour will ruin the economy. But is this truism always true? During our post-referendum summer languor, it may be worth looking at…

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The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence

The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence

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Her current LAB alternative does not Yesterday’s shock leader satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI that had May with net a positive from LAB voters while Corbyn was given a net negative by the same segment was totally unprecedented. Generally people respond to leader ratings on party basis. The numbers come on top of a series of leader ratings which have been very good for the new PM and very bad for Corbyn who is battling to hang on to his…

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UKIP slips to just 6% with Ipsos MORI as CON moves up 9% to 45%

UKIP slips to just 6% with Ipsos MORI as CON moves up 9% to 45%

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Latest Ipsos MORI voting has UKIP dropping to just 6%CON 45 +9LAB 34 -1LD 7 -4UKIP 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2016 May moves to a staggering 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn May moves to net 68% @IpsosMORI ratings over Corbyn pic.twitter.com/7HE8yLKPTD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2016 An amazing phone poll just out sees some dramatic changes. CON up to 45% but probably the most significant is that the leader-troubled UKIP is down to…

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After being a polling phenomenon Boris Johnson joins the negative ratings club

After being a polling phenomenon Boris Johnson joins the negative ratings club

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Being a cabinet minister means he’s much less in the limelight One of the PB YouGov Favourability Ratings that hasn’t attracted much attention is that for the former longstanding favourite to succeed Cameron, the ex-Mayor and current Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson. He recorded a net minus 5 which wasn’t so bad compared with the other politicians in the list but significantly means he’s now in negative territory. Only his boss of UK politicians in the list, Theresa May,is viewed more…

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The polling evidence against Corbyn mounts. Smith’s beating him by 24% as “best PM”

The polling evidence against Corbyn mounts. Smith’s beating him by 24% as “best PM”

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By 58% to 42% those polled by BMG say Smith would make best leader. Smith wins best comparison by 62 to 38https://t.co/TaOtCC9Lct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016 From today’s PB YouGov poll The response from JC's own generation, 65+, looks terrible for Labour. These people vote pic.twitter.com/aseafF5YNi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016