His NATO comments should be fatal but they aren’t
Voting packs start going out on Monday in Labour’s election in which Mr. Corbyn is attempting to hang onto his job in the face of a challenge from Owen Smith who was almost a total unknown a month ago.
Don Brind has been arguably strongly here that the election could be a lot closer than the general perception. In the absence of new selectorate polling this is hard to assess. I do understand that YouGov has had a members’ survey in the field and hopefully that will be published soon, maybe even this weekend.
What I find inexplicable is that Corbyn is so popular within the selectorate in the face of a huge amount of polling data that he would be a huge liability at a general election.
We appear to have an election where more than half those voting are data deniers (they don’t believe GE polls) or they have little interest in an early return to power for their party.
So the rush of Smith campaign activity in the past 24 hours following Corbyn’s controversial NATO comments will fall on ears that are not interested.
In the last YouGov poll carried out before the selectorate and contenders were finalised had Corbyn on 56% to Smith’s 34%. The challenger will be hoping that the next published poll has it a lot closer.
I bet a little bit on Owen Smith Betfair at odds of about 10/1 because I reckoned he was better than a 10/1 chance.