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So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

4/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov release more findings from their Labour leadership poll 1/8) Corbyn supporters don’t expect him to do as well as early Blair at a general election https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/Bi2tkRQd5z — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 2/8) Even if he loses the general election, most Corbyn supporters want him to remain leader https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/i60yycy2Ri — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 3/8) 55% of Corbyn supporters in the Labour selectorate believe MI5 is working against him https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/BAA0g742ge — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4,…

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Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think is going to lead LAB to a GE victory

4/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Different pollsters, different questions same picture A few days ago I Tweeted a 65+ breakdown from a recent poll and found myself being attacked for highlighting a small sample subset with all the inherent possibilities for distortion. Fair enough. So I’ve gathered the oldies data from the latest polling and put in into one chart with comparison on TMay. What’s striking is how similar the picture is from each of the surveys. The oldies simply haven’t taken to the party…

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Two nations: the Brexit chasm

4/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Many people my age will have been captivated as children by André Maurois’s fable “Fattypuffs And Thinifers”, in which two brothers descend underground to find themselves in a world where the plump and the skinny are divided into separate realms. The two sides eventually go to war before a compromise is eventually reached. In the last few months Britain also has descended underground and the populace divided at the ballot box between Leavers and Remainers. Leave…

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Everybody salsa for a Labour King over the water

3/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ed GlitterBalls pic.twitter.com/egI2UH4z9e — BBC Strictly ? (@bbcstrictly) September 3, 2016 Can Ed Balls use his appearance on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing to increase his chances of becoming the next Labour Leader? No, this isn’t a shameless attempt to make John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN list, again, but I do think appearing on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing might help Ed Balls reputation and popularity with the public and introduce him to the wider public that don’t follow politics intimately. At…

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Will Jeremy Hunt be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017?

3/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have brought back their market on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017 in light of the announcement this week of further strike action by junior doctors. Normally I’m loathe to back 1/6 bets, however I’m prepared to make an exception to get a 16% return in a little under 4 months for the following reasons. i) On Thursday Theresa May described Jeremy Hunt as an excellent Health Secretary and…

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Last night’s by election results.

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Last night's council by-elections: LDEM gain from UKIP; CON gain from LAB; three CON holds https://t.co/dPyiwIqJ3O pic.twitter.com/tPm692aj7v — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 2, 2016 https://twitter.com/JolyonGreen/status/771505724186890240 TSE

YouGov poll finds the SNP regaining their majority at Holyrood but Scots don’t want a second indyref or to leave the UK

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov Holyrood seat prediction by @scotlandvotes SNP 71(+8) Lab 18(-6) LD 4(-1) Con 26(-5) UKIP 0(=) Grns 10(+4) pic.twitter.com/yxh8bCyYtR — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2016 A good poll for the SNP but not for Scottish Independence This morning The Times published a poll conducted by YouGov, the good news for the SNP, as YouGov notes The survey also looks at Holyrood voting intention for the first time since the Scottish Parliament elections in May, which provides better news for the…

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Betting on when we see the next UK interest rate rise

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have a market up on when ‘Will the Bank Of England Base Rate next rise from its current (August 2016) rate of 0.25%?’ I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit, but my hunch is to go for the first half of 2017. My rationale is that many felt Mark Carney’s decision to cut interest rates was a mistake, especially in light of his remarks prior to June 23rd which indicated Brexit would lead…

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