Embed from Getty Images Whatever the general public think of Jeremy Corbyn, the bookies must love him. He has been at the centre of one of the wildest betting markets I can recall, the Next Labour Leader market. He has not yet been leader of the Labour party for a year but already in that time we have seen wild oscillations. In that time, at least fifteen candidates have been traded on Betfair at prices of 10/1 or shorter (some…
If Corbyn had more success at PMQs he might improve his poor personal ratings Today PMQs returns after the summer recess, Jeremy Corbyn has been doing PMQs for nearly a year, and if anything his performances have become worse. His strategy of asking questions sent in from the public just doesn’t work at PMQs. Today he could put the government on the rack on any number of issues, the junior doctors’ strike or the NHS funding problems, or Number 10…
1921 – 1979 The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the concept of one elector, one vote was established with the abolition of the university seats that Northern Irelan’s MP’s really started to count. It is quite amazing to think that for twenty nine years (with the UK wide boundary changes in 1955 and February 1974)…
Those in the 2nd half of the alphabet hit by the “can’t be arsed” effect One of the extraordinary features of Labour’s last shadow cabinet election in October 2010 is that all the nineteen winners from 49 candidates had surnames starting with letters in the first half of the alphabet. So many highly competent MPs with names in the second half of the alphabet did not manage to garner enough votes to make it across the line. It’s a well…
ICYMI LabMPs will vote tmrw on 'peace plan' to restore Shadow Cabinet elections. MPs warned the public hate disunity https://t.co/G1fooSoGjL — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) September 5, 2016 Labour’s rebel alliance may have come up with a way to castrate the Labour leader but they could be flying into a trap. Last night it was reported that Labour MPs are to vote on restoring Shadow Cabinet elections after a stark warning that they risk losing the party’s heartlands unless they…
Keiran Pedley examines recent Lord Ashcroft polling on what Brexit means to voters and explains why polling can only tell us so much about the deal Theresa May should ask for. As Westminster returns from holiday and the Labour leadership contest draws to a close attention is turning to Theresa May’s debut on the world stage and what ‘Brexit means Brexit’ will actually mean in practice. This week, Lord Ashcroft has produced some polling (conducted in August) that attempts…
Embed from Getty Images Last week’s YouGov poll of Labour members, registered supporters and trade union affiliates giving Jeremy Corbyn a 62% to 38% lead over Owen Smith in the party’s leadership election will have surprised few, except – perhaps – Don Brind and Saving Labour (though how much they really believe the contest is too close to call is a moot point). As someone implacably opposed to Corbyn’s leadership, I have always expected him to win on 24th September…
Polling a changing and complex electorate is a huge challenge Mike Smithson doesn’t pay me to play safe. Or to put it another way, I write for the prestige of appearing on PB but Mike is more than happy for me to stick my neck out. And my neck has been right out there in the last few postings: suggesting that the race was “too close to call I said there was no solid evidence for making Jeremy Corbyn favourite….