politicalbetting.com – Page 1032 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Corbyn has overwhelming victory over TMay at PMQs

14/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

.@theresa_may highlights similarities – and differences – between her & @jeremycorbyn #grammarschools #PMQs https://t.co/7BtrZUXNLn — Sky News (@SkyNews) September 14, 2016 Her’s was one of the worst PM performances in years Only just got round to watching this week’s PMQs which saw Corbyn absolutely hammer the PM who seemed ill-prepared particularly on her flagship grammar school policy. It was inevitable that Corbyn would quote back at her words from David Cameron on the issue and all she could respond with…

Read More Read More

The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the Electoral Commission to fix it that way

14/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The former Top Tory Two have left TMay a great legacy There’ve been two major changes to the electoral system that the Tories have brought which have combined together to make the boundary review so favourable to them. The first is the introduction of individual voter registration which has had the effect of seeing that millions of names on the electoral roll had initially been lost. The second is the introduction of equal sized constituencies. The big question was when…

Read More Read More

The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived

13/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

High levels of postal voting mean we should look at the final 3 weeks not just the final polls Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever. There’s a widespread perception that the polls got the outcome wrong…

Read More Read More

First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40

13/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This compares with the 12 they actually achieved Well done to UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells for the speed he has got his boundary projection out. Based on ward by ward his computation of the proposals Wells projects the above changes in the reduced size parliament. As can be seen LAB are the biggest losers and in relative terms the Tories are the big winners. The LDs would lose half their GE2015 seats and out would go the only GRN…

Read More Read More

The Boundary Review: Round-up

13/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Really useful interactive map on Boundary Commission proposals from Election Data – https://t.co/ZNADXqPE23 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2016 Thinking that God might be Jewish after all. Or at least have a Jewish sense of humour. #boundaryreview https://t.co/uwCqZz4qVc — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) September 13, 2016 Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson and George Osborne among MPs hit by electoral shakeup https://t.co/HIYeuTCVLu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2016 Tory MPs join Labour in fight against boundary changes as more Con seats…

Read More Read More

The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010

12/9/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Where the total seats are being slashed from 40 to 29 The boundary changes to be announced tonight (and to the MP’s from England and Wales today) will see the first reduction in the number of seats in Wales since the Great Reform Act of 1832 and see Wales be reduced from forty seats to just twenty nine (it’s lowest number since the Great Reform Act) and will the be fifth set of boundary changes since true democracy (one elector,…

Read More Read More

Cameron quits the Commons sparking off the first by-election in a CON seat since GE2015

12/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Hard to see anything other than comfortable CON hold Cameron has announced this afternoon that he’s going to follow Tony Blair – the last former successful general election winner to stand down as an MP shortly after stepping down as party leader and PM. So we now have the first Westminster by-election in a CON held seat since the general election. The numbers from May 2015 are above. Although the overall outcome is hardly in doubt it does raise some…

Read More Read More

“We can get through this”: Don Brind looks at how coffee cup diplomacy could help Labour MPs work together.

12/9/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

When I joined the BBC in the 70s one of the senior writers was regarded a bit of legend for having spotted the start of Ping-Ping diplomacy – what the US official historian describes as “fraternization” between table tennis players from the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China during an international competition in Japan. It led eventually to the 1972 meeting between Nixon and Mao. Not quite on the same epic scale but there are signs that a rapprochement…

Read More Read More