Hard to see anything other than comfortable CON hold
Cameron has announced this afternoon that he’s going to follow Tony Blair – the last former successful general election winner to stand down as an MP shortly after stepping down as party leader and PM.
So we now have the first Westminster by-election in a CON held seat since the general election. The numbers from May 2015 are above.
Although the overall outcome is hardly in doubt it does raise some questions. Who will be the CON candidate? This is a seat that had had done big beasts in the past and there will be a massive fight to get the blue selection.
How are LAB going to do? Will they hold onto 2nd place or could we see them squeezed by either UKIP or the LDs. The yellows have done reasonably well here in the past and have been having an excellent run in council by-elections.
This should be seen by Farron as a big chance to build some momentum following their dismal GE performance.
It will also be the first by-election for UKIP’s new leader who’ll take over later in the month. Could the hot favourite for that post, Diane James, put herself forward here?
Whatever it is great to have a by-election in a non LAB seat.