Embed from Getty Images I didn’t think this would be a post I’d ever write. Anyone who’s followed my posts over the last three years will know I’m not exactly George Osborne’s biggest fan. I felt he turned from being a huge asset to the Conservatives in the opposition years into a Chancellor who cynically viewed his voters and supporters as mere chesspieces – only worthy of narrow tactical calculations that might advance his career – and his fellow…
Continued splits in LAB could help a rejuvenation of the yellows The LDs are gathering in Brighton for their annual conference which, unlike the coalition years, is barely getting any attention. That’s understandable. Having just 8 MPs and the Tories having a majority means they are not important anymore. The polls suggest they haven’t progressed from the 8% of GE2015 but there’s one glimmer of hope – they are doing remarkably well at a local level. They made the most…
Suddenly his path to the White House is looking a lot clearer The Terminator had nothing on Donald Trump. Relentless, seemingly unstoppable, impervious, unflappable, possessed of a few choice popular catch-phrases, assimilated but still not of this (political) world: the public’s watched in horrified awe as he swept all opposition so far aside. Can Hillary Clinton make an even less plausible Sarah Connor and find the equivalent of a crushing steel press in the form of the electorate? Her health…
She looks very uncomfortable defending her boss’s flagship policy A new YouGov poll this morning finds that there has been a less than overwhelming response to TMay’s main domestic policy – the return of grammar schools. 34% say they back the plan; 25% want all existing grammars closed and 20% thought things should stay as they are. The minister with the task of defending this is EdSec, Justine Greening, who looked very uncomfortable in the Commons earlier in the week….
Joining Keiran (on the programme is the Politco polling analyst, Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) and Federica Cocco (@federicacocco) statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. The Clinton health scare on the 15th anniversary of 9/11 and her team’s reaction to it have reinforced doubts about her and have inevitably given Trump a boost. This is, of course, being reflected in the betting where the latest on the Betfair Exchange has Trump on 34/35%. Clinton is hovering around the 60%…
CON lead drops 5% in latest Ipsos-MORI. UKIP the main gainers CON 40% -5LAB 34% =UKIP. 9% +3LD 6%.-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 TMay's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings down 4% JC's up 1% pic.twitter.com/ReM0Uhv7MX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 The new PM’s honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big…
Joff Wild is puzzled by the half-hearted response of Corbyn’s team. It’s as if they don’t care The only question from a Labour perspective about the result of the Parliamentary constituency review for England and Wales is just how bad it will be for the party. The most optimistic prognosis I saw was from Paul Waugh in the Huffington Post, who reported that under the new boundaries the Tories would lose 17 seats and Labour would lose 23. But probably…