Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?

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Ordnance Survey Farron’s party is under most pressure to perform Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2001 until a week last Monday. Both the LAB and UKIP will have just gone through leadership elections and both UKIP’s Diana James and, presumably Corbyn will want a good result to stamp their authority on their…

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Labour’s local by-election woes continue

Labour’s local by-election woes continue

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Plasnewydd (Cardiff) result:LDEM: 48.1% (+15.4)LAB: 34.8% (-2.0)PC: 6.8% (-5.3)CON: 4.4% (-1.2)GRN: 3.6% (-9.3)UKIP: 2.4% (+2.4) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 20, 2016 Updated local by-elections gains/losses chart including latest LAB loss overnight pic.twitter.com/kdWuq4UpTF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2016

In safe hands? Whose finger is on the Article 50 button?

In safe hands? Whose finger is on the Article 50 button?

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks wonders whether the Royal Prerogative would really suffice “Who? Whom?” Lenin asked.  These are questions that confront the government and Parliament when determining who decides to pull the trigger to leave the EU: who is going to take control and who is going to be dictated to?  We are set for a constitutional power struggle to be fought in the courtroom and the next chapter unfolds next month. John Grisham would doubtless not start…

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What happened when Yvette Cooper made a last minute appeal on behalf of Owen Smith

What happened when Yvette Cooper made a last minute appeal on behalf of Owen Smith

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This isn't even shocking anymore but what horrible abuse for expressing an opinion pic.twitter.com/uOLeXNxWmg — Helena Horton (@horton_official) September 20, 2016 Why is it that some JC backers are such nasty pieces of work? One feature that has characterised this LAB leadership campaign has been the sheer nastiness that we have seen on social media. The above Tweet this afternoon is just the latest example. It seems that female LAB MPs have received more of it and those, like Ruth…

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Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers

Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers

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Perceptions about its size could be greater than the reality I’m only a few years younger than Neil Kinnock so when he tells John Pienaar on Panorama he fears that he may never see another Labour government in his lifetime it’s an “ouch” moment for me. I regularly go in to bat for Kinnock with fans of Tony Blair, especially when they trot out the line “he won three general elections”. My argument is that Blair benefited hugely from the…

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Terror casts a shadow over the race for the White House

Terror casts a shadow over the race for the White House

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Keiran Pedley looks at how unfolding events in New York and New Jersey might impact the US presidential race. It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election. What is less clear is the impact they will have. The traditional view is that events surrounding national security will favour the Republican candidate. However, given that the Republican…

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Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospect to the Scots. BREXIT could be keeping the union together

Suddenly independence starts to look a much scarier prospect to the Scots. BREXIT could be keeping the union together

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Survation finds big move against Independence in latest Scottish poll Yes 42% (-5)No 48% (+7)Changes from June 28 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2016 It’s not only the oil prices but so much more appears undercertain Survation’s latest Scottish poll, like some other similar surveys, have found that the mood is moving away from independence. The normal response is to blame the oil price but I wonder if it goes deeper than that. BREXIT has added so many new…

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The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007

The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007

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Both the Telegraph and Sky wrongly announced that Alan Johnson had won the deputy race Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory. Instead there…

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