The chart from the highly accurate YouGov poll that shows how totally split LAB is
It was the newcomers into the party wot did it
Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for getting another leadership election spot on
Now lets see if his party’s fortunes can improve
Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate
History repeats itself: the first time as farce, the second as – who knows? Albert Einstein said that time travel into the past is impossible. He was, however, only talking physically. Politics does not necessarily obey the same laws; a fact he recognised when he turned down the presidency of Israel due people needing to be treated differently from ‘objective matters’. Later today Labour will attempt to prove that those universal physical laws don’t apply by trying to turn the…
Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight
Clinton recovering a bit in latest national polls but this battle is still very tight.On Monday it's the 1st debate pic.twitter.com/7AXiPfEwOE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Latest Betfair Exchange WH2016 prices pic.twitter.com/q6lUDmgcfJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Just three days to go before the first WH2016 debate This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in…
Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader
LAB gain 3 and the LDs 2 LD GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk CC from CON. The 3rd LD gain this week and 4th CON loss of night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Labour GAIN Arley & Whitacre (North Warwickshire) from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 22, 2016 Teignmouth Central (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 51.1% (+28.3)CON: 29.8% (-12.6)UKIP: 11.6% (+11.6)LAB: 7.5% (-8.7) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 22, 2016 Christchurch (Allerdale) result:LAB: 40.7% (+5.8)LDEM: 29.4% (+20.0)CON: 25.9% (-19.3)UKIP: 4.0% (+4.0)…
Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory
Corbyn now a 99% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/V8UZaUjMvI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2016 If its tighter than last year then it’ll encourage future challenges According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015. Clearly some of…
Remember: The only successful CON government by-election defence since 1988 is still subject to an Electoral Commission investigation
All parties are going to be a lot more careful in Witney Partly because far fewer of their MPs have died in office the Tories have not faced many by-elections since returning to power in 2010. They lost to UKIP in Clacton and Rochester but held on in June 2014 in Newark. The latter, quite amazingly, was the first time that the Tories had successfully defended a Westminster by-election while in office since 1988. After their humiliating third place in…
Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast
With the first WH2016 TV debate due to take place next Monday Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley), Matthew Shaddick (@Shadsy) of Ladbrokes, and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi ) look at where the race stands and what the mass of polling is suggesting. In the UK the team look at the LDs who’ve just finished their conference and try to assess the chances of a fightback. With Shadsy on the show there’s a fair amount of focus on the betting particularly on WH2016 and…