Corbyn now a 99% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/V8UZaUjMvI
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2016
If its tighter than last year then it’ll encourage future challenges
According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015.
Clearly some of those MPs who’ve never been reconciled to his leadership are never going to come round to support someone they see as a sure fire general election loser. But quite a few of the 80% of MPs who voted against him in the confidence motion will be ready to join a unification move.
If the only poll of the campaign is correct Corbyn is expected to ride home with 60% plus of the votes which will surely act as a discouragement to PLP members thinking of launching another challenge next year. If it is a few points lower than that then Corbyn will appear damaged and we might have to get used to annual contests.
Yesterday the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg asked him “What will be different about Jeremy Corbyn Mark2?”. He responded “Sadly for everyone its the same Jeremy Corbyn”. That doesn’t sound promising.
If Labour is to have any future then both sides have to reflect on the past year and there need to be changes of some sort.
The real problem is that his mandate is not the vote that will be announced on Saturday but the perception of whether he can lead his party to a successful, however you judge it, general election result.