Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

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The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan. Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%. But his following remain…

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Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

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Early voting in North Carolina The excellent US blog,InsightUS, is providing regular reports and analysis on early voting for the election which takes place four weeks today. In the swing state of North Carolina data is being released by the election board showing how many have early voters have participated so far and this is being compared with what was happening at exactly the same stage in 2012. The post notes:- “..North Carolina’s registered Republicans simply aren’t voting (so far,…

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The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 revocation date are less than 78%

The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 revocation date are less than 78%

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By-passing parliament is going to be tricky A massive political battle is brewing on the PM’s declaration at last week’s CON conference that she’ll invoke Article 50 to extract the UK from EU in March. As can be seen from the chart of Betfair betting above punters have moved sharply to the Jan-June 2017 option which reached an 81% chance and is now starting to slip a bit. All betting is about assessing the chances of something happening and comparing…

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Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the ground in Witney

Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the ground in Witney

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William Hill latest prices Do the betting odds have it right? Witney is a safe Tory seat was made ultra safe by the relatively equal division between Reds and Yellows plus the bonus of having the PM as MP. Last time out Labour thumped Lib Dems in the undercard. In the referendum Remain won 54-46. The constituency can be divided into three rough blocks Witney and Chipping Norton – Con v Lab The fringe of Oxford (Woodstock, Charlbury) Con v…

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The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

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Could November 8th still produce a surprise? I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative. Before it Hillary was starting to sink with one swing state after another seeming to go out of her hands. Then came that first debate and Trump flunked it. The next dramatic…

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New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

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So far no sign that Corbyn’s re-election is restoring LAB’s fortunes If LAB was hoping that the end of its leadership contest with Corbyn continuing was going to restore its fortunes then there’s no sign of it yet. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and has an overall split of: CON 43%: LAB 26%: LD 8%: UKIP 11%: GRN 6% It is the massive age differences that are very striking as can be seen in the chart above. LAB…

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YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

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But there was sizeable gender divide YouGov US post debate poll. Women Clinton by 50% to 38%Men Trump by 46% to 43% pic.twitter.com/kXQ638bA1I — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2016 CNN’s poll gave it to Clinton by bigger margin CNN/ORC INSTANT POLL: Who won the debate? *Clinton: 57%*Trump: 34% pic.twitter.com/kBgMoVVoC7 — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) October 10, 2016 What exactly is Trump trying to do here while Hillary is answering a question. #debate pic.twitter.com/caXu9ZBVrE — The Darkest Timeline Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October…

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