By-passing parliament is going to be tricky
A massive political battle is brewing on the PM’s declaration at last week’s CON conference that she’ll invoke Article 50 to extract the UK from EU in March. As can be seen from the chart of Betfair betting above punters have moved sharply to the Jan-June 2017 option which reached an 81% chance and is now starting to slip a bit.
All betting is about assessing the chances of something happening and comparing it with the betting odds available. It is not about making predictions and my view on Article 50 is that the hurdles facing the PM are growing and meeting Mrs. M’s March target might not be as easy as the betting markets currently think.
Firstly there’s the serious possibility of legal intervention. Secondly, on this issue at least, Corbyn’s Labour is getting its act together with the DPP turned MP, Keir Starmer, now in charge of the BREXIT brief. Even some LEAVE CON MPs are now demanding that parliament should not be by-passed.
I thought that May made a mistake by being so specific in her conference speech. If the March 2017 date isn’t met it will be seen as a big personal defeat for her.
The huge decline in the value of pound and the threats of some US firms to leave the City of London are adding to the pressure.