Could November 8th still produce a surprise?
I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative.
Before it Hillary was starting to sink with one swing state after another seeming to go out of her hands. Then came that first debate and Trump flunked it.
The next dramatic movement came following the “pussygate” tape and the decisions by dozens of leading Republicans to distance themselves from the nominee.
Perhaps the most significant figure to have made such a statement was ex-POW and 2008 nominee John McCain who earlier in the primary campaign had been the target of a biting attack. Trump, it will be recalled, said of McCain“He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”
That ex-POW McCain could come to terms with this and publicly support Trump’s nomination was an important validation following the convention and helped other figures to follow suit. His move away has had the opposite effect.
My reading is that Trump’s performance last night has stopped any move however unlikely, to get him off the ticket.
This latest debate also exposed further Clinton’s vulnerabilities as a candidate.
Polling day is four weeks tomorrow and there’s plenty of time for something else to happen.