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Corporeal on the GOP and project Dump Trump

9/10/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Trump hits GOP leadership while campaign struggles to defend him https://t.co/J5GyzUa2wn via @KyleDCheney | Getty pic.twitter.com/kWmW13KERo — POLITICO (@politico) October 9, 2016 The Trump movement, like its spiritual precursor the Tea Party, has always felt like a wave the Republican party establishment has decided to try and ride because they were scared to stand up to it. After losing the 2012 presidential election the RNC commissioned the Growth and Opportunity Project Report (link here) to assess their defeat and map a…

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Joff Wild says keep an eye on Keir

9/10/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

If the Holborn and St Pancras MP is not the first to leave the shadow cabinet, his new Brexit role makes him a decent outside bet in the Labour leadership stakes, writes Joff Wild With Tory ministers briefing against each other as they fall out over Brexit and the Trump campaign seemingly on the verge of implosion in the US, the recent Corbyn Labour shadow cabinet reshuffle has, understandably, not grabbed many of the headlines. But it is noteworthy, nonetheless….

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Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the cabinet

9/10/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union – 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'https://t.co/w7KaQJ4Ui4 — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 5, 2016 A few days ago The Sun reported that A MAJOR Cabinet split on Brexit is brewing over whether to sever all links with the EU on customs controls, The Sun can reveal. One of Theresa May’s top table team has even predicted there will be resignations from it over the tinderbox issue….

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As we move to the crucial second Trump-Clinton debate the live Betfair betting odds

8/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Given the uncertainties about Trump punters should read the bookie market rules This is for the £56m next President market on Betfair:- “Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2016 presidential election? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This…

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Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would’ve produced a different result

8/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Theresa May is wrong to assert that the referendum outcome was “clear” The chart above shows the winning margins in the four major referendums that there have been in the UK and illustrates just how small the LEAVE victory on June 23rd was compared with the other big UK rerefendums. Certainly the 1975 EC vote and the 2011 AV one gave very clear results which it is hard to argue with. Scotland’s IndyRef in September 2014 had a double digit…

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Welcome to the new gerontocracy

8/10/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The pendulum has swung against the cult of youth. Why? So much for reconciliation and unity. So much for Shadow Cabinet elections. In an act that was at once decisive and divisive, Jeremy Corbyn’s reshuffle this week has made absolutely clear that there is no new start. As he said at the time of his re-election, “sadly for everyone I’ll be the same Jeremy Corbyn.” And so he is. Carrying out a snap reshuffle without forewarning is in fact good…

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LAB could get squeezed in Witney and end up with a single figure vote share

7/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes have new Witney market on LAB vote share. If LDs do well, as I think, then they'll be squeezed & sub 10% share possible pic.twitter.com/sY8iFmyd4M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2016 Why the new Ladbrokes market could be interesting Ladbrokes have just put up the above new Witney market on the party’s vote share in the October 20th by-election. At GE2015 ED Miliband’s party party got 17% giving it second place a long way behind David Cameron. The…

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It looks as though Mrs. May’s BREXIT strategy isn’t helping confidence on the markets

7/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

From the markets: Markets rattled by pound’s tumble https://t.co/yV1xyrZWpz pic.twitter.com/26BAOfN86o — Financial Times (@FT) October 7, 2016 The pound’s downward spiral continues At one stage during the night the pound tumbled for a few minutes to below $1.20 on the foreign exchanges. It has recovered a bit since then but the trend from the FR chart is very clear. Before the referendum the pound was touching $1.50. Until the weekend it had kept above the $1.30 mark – a line…

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