Ladbrokes have new Witney market on LAB vote share. If LDs do well, as I think, then they'll be squeezed & sub 10% share possible pic.twitter.com/sY8iFmyd4M
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2016
Why the new Ladbrokes market could be interesting
Ladbrokes have just put up the above new Witney market on the party’s vote share in the October 20th by-election. At GE2015 ED Miliband’s party party got 17% giving it second place a long way behind David Cameron.
The Tories are very strong favourites to hold on – Ladbrokes make them a 1/33 showtwhich compares with the 1/500 they they had on the day that Cameron quit the seat.
The LDs have their tails up and are running a campaign that is a big as the operation that led them to retain Eastleigh in February 2013. Many of the experienced organisers from that operation are leading their effort in the Oxfordshire seat. Getting the win, though, is clearly a massive ask particularly in view of their national polling position. I’m on at 50/1 and don’t expect to win.
What could be interesting from a betting perspective is how Labour will do. Looking back to previous Tory governments there is a history of Labour being squeezed strongly whenever the LDs have done well. At Newbury and Christchurch LAB lost its deposit.
I’ve gone for Corbyn’s party to come out with less than 10% and have bet accordingly.