The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fail as large as in the UK at GE2015

The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fail as large as in the UK at GE2015

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But the signs from US early voting seems to back up the polls Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady. Following the wobble in August and September ahead of the first TV debate her polling…

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The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

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Detailed analysis of the issues and the numbers A huge amount has happened in UK politics since the last show two weeks ago and joining Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley) are Asa Bennett (@AsaBenn) of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) of noiseofthecrowd.com BREXIT still totally dominates UK politics and the programme seeks to look at its likely impact in the by-election and, of course, the impact on the differents part of the UK. Another area for analysis is Labour’s polling plight…

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In betting terms the Richmond Park by-election is one of the tightest races in decades

In betting terms the Richmond Park by-election is one of the tightest races in decades

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Currently the bookies make Zac the favourite by a whisker I can’t recall the opening 24 hours of a political betting market where the outcome has appeared so tight. First the opening odds all made Zac the favourite. Then that moved to the LDs until news came through the the Tories would stand aside. That led to the Zac price tightening and for a short while you could get the LDs at longer than evens. No more. The best you…

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Situation critical. How the NHS could affect the path of Brexit

Situation critical. How the NHS could affect the path of Brexit

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That £350m “commitment” could be damaging The debate in Britain about health spending is fundamentally dishonest.  The left constantly press for large increases in spending.  The government constantly boasts about ever-increasing spending at or above inflation levels.  Voices on the right frequently argue for scaling back the health services that the public sector provides.  None of them address what Britain needs. Britain’s health needs are growing at a rate far faster than inflation, even if one uses measures of healthcare…

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The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs

The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs

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If they can’t recover here then they are in trouble To be frank I had been getting concerned about what we’d be doing on the site after the November 8th US election. PB is at its best when there are real elections taking place and there are real things to bet on. So I was absolutely delighted to get the news that we are to have a by-election in Richmond Park where Zac Goldsmith has quit because of the Heathrow…

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UPDATED Heathrow expansion to go ahead: Zac Goldsmith resigns

UPDATED Heathrow expansion to go ahead: Zac Goldsmith resigns

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Exclusive: @ZacGoldsmith resigns pic.twitter.com/asanAlwT5b — Martha Gill (@Martha_Gill) October 25, 2016 In Richmond Park constituency the EURef split wasREMAIN 72%LEAVE 28%Zac was a leaver — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2016 As had been widely predicted Theresa May’s government has decided to go ahead with the expansion of Heathrow. A third runway will be added to the two that have been in place there for 70 years. A short time ago Zac Goldsmith announced that he was quitting his Richmond…

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Updated UKIP leader betting and some of the controversial Tweets

Updated UKIP leader betting and some of the controversial Tweets

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Latest UKIP betting across range of bookies. It looks like Nuttall v Evans pic.twitter.com/19dPRWiKBT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2016 What Raheem Kassam Tweeted about Nicola Sturgeon Inside the mind of UKIP leadership contender Raheem Kassam. A Tweet, via @AdamBienkov he sent in June – now deleted. pic.twitter.com/fvZUcf4sga — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2016 And others.. Raheem Kassam says his many tweets like this were "acerbic and a bad joke …I've said some bad things & I'm sorry"…

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The Telegraph does a sting on the Trump campaign and finds that it’ll accept illegal foreign donations

The Telegraph does a sting on the Trump campaign and finds that it’ll accept illegal foreign donations

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Exclusive investigation in Telegraph : Donald Trump faces foreign donor fundraising scandal https://t.co/1mjGOhco8j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2016 After the England soccer manager, can the Telegraph investigations team topple the Donald? https://t.co/ANEnfyO74q — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 24, 2016 This has replaced the previous thread posted a couple of minutes ago