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Category: Wales

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

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A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…

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It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

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The signs are that today will see the writ being moved for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to fill the vacancy created by the success of the recall petition that has seen the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, forced out of his seat. This follows his conviction and sentencing for expenses fraud. The date looks set to be August 1st bang in the middle of the holiday season. Extraordinarily it was confirmed yesterday that Mr Davies has been selected as…

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Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “social care” turnaround

Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “social care” turnaround

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As well as what’s being described as a U-turn over her manifesto pledge on social care there’ve been two new polls during the day all showing LAB making progress. The one that has shown the biggest move is the YouGov Wales poll for ITV. The figures, if repeated, suggest that LAB’s lead over CON is now greater than it was at GE2015 in the Principality. Via @roger_scully LAB sees huge surge in latest YouGov Wales poll LAB 44%+9CON 34%-7PC 9%-2LD…

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The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON

The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON

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There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area. Above is a screenshot of the dataset from the latest Welsh YouGov poll which covers the 40 seats at stake in the Principality on June 8th. My red arrow points to one – the proportion of UKIP voters from the last general election who now say they are switching…

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Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Checking the Political Weather in Wales

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Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…

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Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

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Welsh boundary review proposals delayed until next year The part of the UK that is most affected by the seat equalisation and reduction plan is Wales where the boundary commissioners are charged with reducing the number of constituencies from the current 40 to 30. This is a cutback of a quarter. The national reduction is from 650 seats to 600. According to the initial time-table plans for the new Welsh electoral map was due out in the first week in…

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YouGov Wales: An example of the “Mirror Magnifier”?

YouGov Wales: An example of the “Mirror Magnifier”?

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How 6.9% of the sample was worth 21%? Last Wednesday YouGov reported that Labour were on 48% for the Welsh Assembly elections on May 5th and were possibly heading for an overall majority They might well be but ftom the initial detail that the pollster released I was uncomfortable by the heavy weighting uplift that Labour had in the poll and the sizeable down-scale of the Tory vote. Now with the availability today of the full weightings data we can…

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Will today’s elections makes us any the wiser about anything?

Will today’s elections makes us any the wiser about anything?

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Is turnout the only real issue? It’s election day with voters throughout Wales deciding on whether the Welsh Assembly should have greater law-making powers and in Barnsley Central where they’ll be deciding on a replacement for the former Labour MP who was sentenced to a year in jail over his expenses claims. The outcomes of both are forgone conclusions – there will be a big YES vote in Wales and Labour will romp home to a massive victory in Barnsley….

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