The money piles on an early capture There been a lot of activity on the Tradesports market on Osama Bin Laden being found by the end of the year and it is now listed as the betting exchange’s fifth most traded contract. It comes after the White House race itself and three NFL matches. The price has tightened in the past day to less than 6/1 on him being “neutralised”. The lay price has also gone up to 15/2. The…
Is the pro-Bush bias repeating itself? With a daily diet of more than thirty new state and national polls predicting very different outcomes the big betting decisions are going to be based on which polling organisations have got it right. To guide us these were the final polls from 2000 to test against the actual result – which had Bush and Gore on 48% each. SEVEN final national polls had Bush upto 5% ahead. WRONG TWO final polls showed Bush…
Will the world’s most wanted man be found before election day? For months people have speculated and joked that the icing on the cake of George Bush’s re-election campaign would be the capture of Osama Bin Laden – surprise, surprise – a few days before November 2. There’s even been a healthy betting market on the possibility. Tradesports – the Irish betting exchange that is focused on the US – has had a market for nearly a year on “Osama…
We first called for John Kerry in mid-May and we stick with that. We had a little wobble in the period after the Republican Convention and before the TV debates but we now firmly believe that the Democratic ticket is good value at current prices. The 8/5 you can now get on Kerry is out of proportion to the risk that he will lose. With new state and national polls coming out almost by the hour it’s getting hard to…
Kerry moves up in state polls but down in the national ones In spite of a run of poor national polls the Kerry-Edwards campaign has today edged ahead of Bush in the latest estimate of electoral votes based on the most recent state polls. A new poll in the key swing state of Wisconsin shows that Kerry has overturned a 5% Bush lead and is now 1% ahead. The excellent electoral-vote.com puts the challenger ahead by the narrowest of margins…
You need more than 13/10 for value on the Democrat ticket? Three recent polls showing 3-4% leads for George Bush have knocked some of the confidence from the Kerry-Edwards campaign that seemed to be on a roll. One of them, Zogby, is showing a 4% Bush lead which is even more striking because for the past two months its methodology seems to have favoured Kerry. But two state polls, in New Jersey and Florida have given a boost to the…
Three polls taken after last night’s final TV debate have made John Kerry the winner. Gallup gave it to the Democratic challenger by 52% to 39%, A CBS poll of uncommitted voters gave it to Kerry by 39% to 25% An ABC News poll made it Kerry by 42% to 41%. This poll consisted of 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats The latest electoral vote calculation , based on state polls, has Bush ahead. The price on Kerry has tightended and…
Polls – neck and neck: electoral votes – Bush noses ahead With the two contenders going into their final debate there’ve been seven new polls in the past two days and it’s neck and neck. Some have got Bush ahead – others have Kerry. The good news for Kerry is that Gallup which was reporting big leads for Bush is now showing the Democrat ahead. The electoral vote calculator, based on state polls, is now showing a small Bush lead….