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Category: US Politics

At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be value

At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be value

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Donald Trump betting odds from @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/MkiO5evY6G — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2017 With tensions growing between Trump and the Republican party these are latest Trump betting odds from Betfred. pic.twitter.com/MQx4wcEP3S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2017 But I’m not tempted at the moment In the days leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th we are going to see a lot of speculation on whether he’s going to survive. Certainly his links with Putin and the…

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A look at the next American Secretary of State market

A look at the next American Secretary of State market

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Embed from Getty Images A look at the next US. Secretary of State market by RKRKRK The Betfair market makes Trump’s pick Rex Tillerson an overwhelming favourite at c. 90% to be confirmed by the US Senate. Historically nominees normally make it through – the last Cabinet nominee rejected by the Senate was back in 1989. However nominees also sometimes withdraw from the process- Obama lost 3 nominees that way: Tom Daschle (unpaid taxes), Bill Richardson (investigation for pay-to-play allegations) and…

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Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the House of Representatives in 2018.

Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the House of Representatives in 2018.

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Qua  A guest slot by RKRKRK on prospects for the next big US elections The Democrats are reeling from an unexpected and disastrous election defeat. They are at a low ebb in Congress. Nancy Pelosi is an aging figure with an underwater approval rating. There seems to be a near-total absence of young talent in senior leadership positions for the Democratic Party. Republicans are free to gerrymander districts in most of the country. The situation certainly looks bleak- but is…

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Your timetable for this historic day

Your timetable for this historic day

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How events will unfold state by state November 8th 2016 (all times GMT) 5.00am Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, New Hampshire The two communities of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location in the battleground state of New Hampshire, have been voting at midnight for the best part of forty years and between them, give us the first indications of the result. For instance in 2012 Obama polled 28 votes in the two locations, Romney 14 votes and Johnson 1 vote (Obama…

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A former odds-on favourite for the Democratic nomination says the LDs could form the next UK government

A former odds-on favourite for the Democratic nomination says the LDs could form the next UK government

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https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/780364710172585985 Back in late 2003, not too long after the Iraq War, the governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, was causing a stir on the WH2004 betting markets. He had become just about the first politician to tap into the power of the internet and was running a very effective online campaign building up hundreds of thousands of supporters. By early January 2004 ahead of the Iowa caucuses he looked unstoppable with the money and, apparently, campaign organisation see see him…

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The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

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On this week’s show the Polling Matters team take a break from Brexit to discuss events across the pond. Keiran and Rob are joined by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua to discuss Clinton vs Trump, the states Trump must win to get to 270 electoral college votes and who each candidate might pick as their running mate. You can follow Jon-Christopher at @jcbua Audio only version is here Keiran Pedley

Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

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This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice. I quickly went into Betfair and got £11 at an average price of 81.59 without knowing a thing about him. I then Tweeted what I’d done and since then the price has moved in sharply. A little bit of time on Google later indeed confirmed that he was widely being talked about for…

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