How events will unfold state by state
November 8th 2016 (all times GMT)
5.00am Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, New Hampshire
The two communities of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location in the battleground state of New Hampshire, have been voting at midnight for the best part of forty years and between them, give us the first indications of the result. For instance in 2012 Obama polled 28 votes in the two locations, Romney 14 votes and Johnson 1 vote (Obama 65%, Romney 33%, Johnson 2%) which when compared to the 2008 results in the locations showed there was no real swing between Obama and Romney with Johnson’s support switching to Ron Paul (as write in candidates). This compared to a national swing of 1.7% to Romney suggesting that the swing in these two locations is smaller than the national swing. Therefore if Clinton romps home in these two locations, a Clinton landslide is very likely, but if Trump wins, no matter by how small a margin, then we are in for a cliffhanger of an election
9.00am The Northern Marianas Islands
It may sound odd, but there are in fact 441 seats in Congress. The extra seats are for the delegation from the Northern Marianas Islands, which thanks to there only being one candidate will be filled by Gregorio Kilili Camacho “Kilili” Sablan who although an Independent will caucus with the Democrats
however the island nation of Guam where there will be an election between Madeleine Zeien Bordallo for the Democrats and Felix P. Camacho for the Republicans for their congressional seat
9.00pm Puerto Rico
as will the the resident commissioner for Puerto Rico (where not only do they have a multi party election, they are parties that have no connection to the United States parties)
11.00pm The United States Virgin Islands, first polls in Indiana and Kentucky
Indiana is such a Republican state that, along with Kentucky, it can be called for the Republicans without any problems at all. However in 2008, it didn’t and that gave an instant clue that Obama was going to win. Therefore Indiana which requires a swing of 5.1% to flip will give us an instant clue to the result. If the networks project it as Trump, then it’s going to be no change since 2012, but any hint of a Clinton win (even to the extent of the networks not being prepared to call it at 11.00pm) and that’s it, Clinton has won a landslide. But those aren’t the only elections that the media will be looking at, with open seats in IN 3, IN 9 and KY 1 and an open seat in the senate election for Indiana the Democrats aim to retake the Senate and the House would get a very early boost. The United States Virgin Islands are the fourth extra seat in Congress with a straight GOP / Dem fight
November 9th 2016
12.00am Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, all polls in Indiana and Kentucky, first polls in Florida
Another indication of the battle will come now when Georgia’s polls close. Georgia only needs a swing of 3.9% to flip and so any suggestion of this state being too close to call will bolster the Clinton camp, but we will also get our first suggestions from Florida, a state that Trump would gain on a 0.44% swing. So what could happen? Well, in theory both Georgia and Florida could flip in opposite directions making both “too close to call” and no doubt giving the Trump campaign cause for both concern and joy at the same time.
12.30am Ohio, West Virginia, first polls in North Carolina
Ohio is the real battleground of the whole election. It is virtually impossible for a Republican to win the White House without carrying the state and with only a 1.5% swing needed to flip the state it must surely be a prime target but at the same time we get indications from North Carolina, a state that ignored Clinton in the 1990’s but flipped to Obama in 2008 only to flip back in 2012. Has North Carolina become the Basildon of America (and becoming the new bellwether state?)
1.00am Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, all polls in Florida, first polls in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, Texas and Tennessee
If Ohio is the real battleground, then this collection of states is the motherlode with 235 electoral college votes up for grabs. Included in that list is Maine with it’s statewide allocation of electoral college votes and districts but also Pennsylvania, where any Trump win would be a massive blow to the Clinton path to victory. The last time the state voted Republican was back in 1988 when George Bush Senior won the state, if Trump can win that state then expect the Asian markets (open since midnight) to start wobbling. In the House and Senate elections this is the time when nails could get badly bitten, Delaware’s at large seat is open, as is IL 8, MD 4, MD 8, PA 8, PA 16, FL 1, FL 2, FL 4, FL 9, FL 11, FL 18, FL 19, MI 1, MI 10, TX 15, TX 19 and TN 8 and with the Dems needing thirty one House gains to take control, this is when they have to start making those gains. The fifth extra seat belongs to DC (despite having three electoral college votes)
Aside from voting for the homeboy in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas has been a solid red state and needing an 11.84% swing to flip, there is little chance of it voting for it’s former First Lady, so the question will be how much of a swing can Clinton achieve in the state. The smaller the swing, the more impact scandals such as Whitewater has had on the Clinton’s legacy in the state.
2.00am Arizona, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Wyoming, all polls in Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, Texas, postal votes in Colorado
It’s another big chunk of votes here with five states in the mix. If Arizona flips to Clinton (4.53% swing) then Clinton has done it, however if Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota flip then it’s still all to play for. And then there is the wild card of New Mexico, will Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, become the first non mainstream candidate to pick up electoral college votes since George Wallace in 1968 and if he does, and the result is looking tight what influence is he having across the rest of the country? Here too are important open house races in AZ 1, AZ 5, LA 3, LA 4, MN 2, WI 8 and Wyoming’s at large seat.
3.00am Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah, first polls in North Dakota, Idaho, first postal votes in Oregon
And New Mexico is not the only state that could throw a spanner in the works. In Utah, a state that Romney won in 2012 with 73% of the vote, a Conservative is standing and according to some polls is within a whisker of winning denying Trump would should be an easy six electoral college votes, but all is not lost if that happens as Iowa is certain to flip. Well, when you have a strongly agricultural state dismayed by schemes to make corn made ethanol into a petrol alternative, sending the cost of corn plunging coupled with a Senator up for re-election who in 2010 polled 70% of the vote, of course it is going to flip. But if Nevada doesn’t flip as people expect and the vote is still close it will all come down to the last mainland states.
4.00am California, Hawaii, Washington, all polls in North Dakota, Idaho, all postal votes in Oregon
Here is the Democratic firewall, 78 electoral college votes all certain to land into the Clinton column, all of which means that if Clinton is on 193 electoral college votes or more before these polls close, there is no question to be asked. Clinton has won the presidency. However, if a state such as Oregon (6.04% swing to flip) does flip and joins North Dakota and Idaho in the red column and Trump is not that far behind, it’s going to an anxious night for both campaigns. If the house is still close then the results in CA 20, CA 24, CA 44, and CA 46 will have a bearing. Although that said one thing that cannot happen is a loss of California’s Senate seat to the Democrats because although Senator Boxer is standing down, she’s going to be replaced by one of two Democrats (that’s right, no Republican candidate).
5.00am American Samoa, first polls in Alaska
And that anxiety will be heightened even if Alaska as expected is called for the Republicans even before of all it’s polls have closed as they do in American Samoa to elect the sixth extra seat. There is however one tiny problem with these extra seats, none of them have the right to vote in the House (which therefore poses the question “What on earth do they do there?”)
6.00pm all polls in Alaska
And if they still have not made a national projection by the time the polls all close then it’s 2000 all over again.