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The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

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But winning seats matters more than votes In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came within 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle. The life-off moment for the party which seriously changed perceptions was on February 28th, the Eastleigh parliamentary by-election following Chris Huhne’s conviction and imprisonment. Starting out in fourth place…

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Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

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Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative source”. I would like to use this opportunity to address these criticisms and provide a robust explanation for our choices of methodology. In his…

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Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

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pic.twitter.com/lFI1YuYqwM — PolPics (@PolPics) December 9, 2013 Dealing with the “Wasted vote” syndrome In the Independent this morning Nigel Farage seeks to deal with what will be a big negative for his party at GE2015 – the notion that a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote and could let Ed Miliband in. There’s little doubt that this perception is widespread and will be used strongly by the Tories in May 2015 to undermine the purples and seek to bring…

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Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

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Double the %age of LAB voters will help LDs as UKIP ones the Tories Last week’s Survation Thanet South polling last week highlighted the reluctance of UKIP voters to switch to the Tories in order to stop EdM being PM. Given that the extent that UKIP switchers are ready to vote blue looks set to be a key determinant at GE2015 I’ve been looking for other data on the issue. Spetember’s massive 12,800 sample phone poll of marginals produced by…

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Will UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems at the 2015 General Election

Will UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems at the 2015 General Election

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With  less than 18 months to go until the general election, it is worth reviewing that markets that both William Hill and Ladbrokes have on Which party will receive the most votes in the next UK General Election? The Lib Dems or UKIP. The below table shows the vote shares for the Lib Dems and UKIP in the most recent polls by the various pollsters. Pollster Lib Dem % UKIP % Populus (online) 12 7 YouGov (online) 8 14 ComRes (phone)…

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If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

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And next week GE2015 will be only 17 months away Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most. By the same argument the more the UKIP share slips back then the better it should be for the blue team The real answer is that we don’t know. The…

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Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

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The stage is set surely for Nigel Farage to become an MP Big GE2015 news has been the announcement by Thanet South MP, Laura Sandys, that she’s going to stand down at the general election. She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement. Nigel Farage had already indicated that the seat…

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Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

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Latest EP2014 odds. UKIP now 11/10 favourites to win most votes pic.twitter.com/ldAe5G0BZA — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 But why the absence of polling? On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you have to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey….

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