Was it this ad that led to Tom stopping his blog? Just over two weeks ago I published the above spoof ad under the headline “Is discipline breaking down within Labour?” and posing the secondary question as to whether its creator, blogging Labour MP, Tom Harris, might be in trouble. Well EdM is about to return to work and what did we see on Tom’s site last night but an announcement that he’s giving up because in his words “blogging…
UPDATED Could Labour MP,Tom Harris, himself be in trouble? The above spoof ad has been published by Labour blogger Tom Harris MP under the heading “I do hope the NEC will approve…” to illustrate what the party’s London mayoral candidate, Ken Livingstone, did during the recent campaign for the mayoralty of Tower Hamlets. It will be recalled that the party replaced the controversial Muslim leader, Lutfur Rahman, as the official Labour candidate two months before polling but this did not…
How much potential is there for Labour progress? Regular readers of this blog will know that I regard local by-election results as being a good lead indicator of the next round of local elections. Despite having gigantic opinion poll leads from 1997-2003, the last Labour government regularly lost ground in successive rounds of local elections, during that period. Local by-elections pointed to these losses, whereas national opinion polls did not. The point should be obvious. National opinion polls are snapshots…
By elections since GE Defended Held Gain Lost Now CON 37 21 5 16 26 LAB 25 22 12 3 35 LD 17 12 10 5 22 OTH 13 8 1 5 9 Elections held on September 16 2010 Name of ward: Park Local Authority: Knowsley Electoral Region: North West England Labour 650 votes (86.0% +6.1% on May 2010) Liberal Democrats 70 votes (9.3% -10.8% on May 2010) Conservatives 36 votes (4.8% did not contest in May 2010) Labour HOLD…
What do last night’s results say about current opinion? The background Imagine the scene: You’re the chief executive of a local council who has been told that unitary status has been granted. So you then make all the changes needed but then a general election is held, a new coalition government comes in and says “You know that unitary status you’ve been granted, we’re not that convinced!” That’s precisely what happened to Norwich and Exeter and last night both councils…
Betfair Politics Candidate Best bookie price Betfair Back – Lay David Miliband 2/5 1.43 – 1.45 Ed Miliband 9/4 3.4 – 3.5 Ed Balls 66/1 110 – 140 Andy Burnham 80/1 70 – 130 Diane Abbott 150/1 220 – 390 If the election is running to plan then the first ballot papers should be going out to qualified voters in the three sections of the electoral college at the end of next week. So far the only firm polling evidence…
Evening Standard Who’ll be the new favourite as Cameron’s successor? The big news in London politics this lunchtime has been that Boris Johnson has ended the speculation and announced that he will be running for a second term as Mayor in 2012. This has an impact on two betting markets – who’ll be the next Mayor and who’ll be the next Tory leader. For, amazingly, given he’s not been an MP since 2008, Boris has become the favourite to take…
Could the timing issue cause a coalition split? As we recall the concession that finally delivered the Lib Dems as coalition partners with the Tories was the voting reform referendum and the measure was included in yesterday’s Queen’s Speech. It’s this, of course, that the Blues found most difficult to swallow. The question that could cause a rift is when it takes place. According the the Guardian the LDs are pushing for it to be earlier rather than later with…