Why did the SNP make Glasgow their key target? In our PB prediction poll a couple of weeks ago a reasonable majority of participants said that the SNP would win control of the city of Glasgow. That was understandable given the hype that was coming from north of the border. For weeks this has been paraded as Alex Salmond’s big objective for May 3rd and the latest news is that the SNP has fallen short by some distance. In fact…
Betfair At what stage will the market switch? After being totally hammered in the local elections you would expect that punters would take a fresh look at the chances of the Tories winning most seats at the next general election. The panel above gives the prices at 0824 this morning with a price of 1.88 (that’s 0.88/1 in real money) on the Conservatives winning most seats. The blues have been solid favourites since the market was set up after the…
A time-line based on what results we’ll see first Thanks to the Tory election analyst, Rob Hayward for this: CON-LD seats. Shire districts (not in terms of change of control but are the Tories gaining seats or not where they did last year) St Albans, Southend, Milton Keynes Later (but intermingled with CON-LD areas) will come CON-LAB contests. (Again not necessarily change of control) Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Harlow, Thurrock, Derby, Dudley Very much later and into tomorrow LD-LAB. With many…
But which one will be most accurate? There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium – the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%. Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In…
LSE expert Tony Travers revises predictions for tomorrow: CON losses 500-600 not 250-350/LD 100-200 not 250-350/LAB gains 700-800 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 LSE expert Tony Travers tells Times that Lib Dems won’t do so badly ‘cos Tories in “such trouble” — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 @AllanHeron I think Travers just talking about England&Wales. Not sure about Scotland. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012
Or will the 2011 dynamics be repeated? Last year’s local elections, the first to be held since the formation of the coalition, transformed the political landscape. The table above, prepared by Professor Colin Rallings for last month’s Political Studies Association briefing, sets out what happened in six different categories of council seats. The big picture from twelve months ago was that the Tories lost out to LAB but were able to make that up with gains from the Lib Dems…
Could the reds win more than the initial 700 seat projection? There’s a new Survation poll out in the Daily Mirror which has both Westminster and local election voting intention for this Thursday. The national numbers are CON 30% nc/LAB 37%+2/LD 13%+2/UKIP 9%-1 with comparisons on the firm’s poll a fortnight ago for the Mail on Sunday. For the locals Survation has with comparisons on the 2008 national equivalent votes shares when most of these sears were last fought CON…
How many seats will Labour gain? With just nine days to go before what are being described as the “Britain’s mid-terms” there’s a whole raft of new markets being set up by the bookies. Until now virtually the only focus has been on London. Now many other options are available including the second biggest mayoral election – the choice of the first elected mayor of Liverpool from William Hill. Labour is the 1/10 favourite but you might have local knowledge….