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Category: Donald Trump

Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

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Betdate.io It is now the nearly week since the US midterm elections and still we have to wait for a final outcome. There are two big state results to be completed both of which are on a knife edge. There is a strong argument for saying that the midterm performances 2 years before a presidential election are not a good pointer to the outcome. There are certainly a number of precedents to support that position. What makes the 2018 elections…

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After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

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The value bet is that he won’t A number of US commentators are taking the view that the order in which results came in on Tuesday evening is giving a distorted picture of what happened. The early news about the races in Ohio and Florida dominated the initial thinking and overshadowed what is now clear was in fact a big success for the Democrats. The party looks set to make more House gains than at any Midterms since Watergate. The…

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PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

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There’s this parody of Guardian readers children’s parties, where pass the parcel involves presents with every layer, and nobody is ever eliminated from musical chairs. This “all must have prizes” mentality seems to have reached US politics, as it appears that everyone won the midterms: the Democrats, the Republicans, Nancy Pelosi and President Trump. Who really won, and – ummm – does it matter? I’m diving into the numbers and letting you know who should be pleased. Robert Smithson Robert…

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Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

Mid Terms 2018 : Hour by hour, state by state, your timetable for tonight

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The Mid Term Elections of 2018 are shaping up to be one of the most important elections in recent times, perhaps up there with the 1994 Republican “Contract with America” or the 2010 “schallacking” that the Republicans gave the Democrats. Whatever happens, all the twists and turns will be poured over for years to come, so instead of looking at the issues, I will be focusing on which congressional districts are likely to flip (GAIN) and what impact that will…

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Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

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At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…

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Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

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With just a week to go before Trump’s first major electoral test since becoming President the latest Gallup approval rating sees a biggish drop. The chart shows that polling over the past week his net ratings edging down 4% to minus 14. This reverses a recent trend of his ratings getting better. In previous midterm the President approval ratings have been a broad indicator. Although Trump will not appear on any ballot next week his big message as he has…

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Many Democrats are viewing the November 6th Midterms in same way Remainers would view a second referendum

Many Democrats are viewing the November 6th Midterms in same way Remainers would view a second referendum

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The Dems lead in generic poll but will that be enough? In 2016 there were two elections which had global reverberations – Brexit and, of course, the election of Donald Trump. Both were close, both were seen as defeats for the liberal establishment and in both those on the losing side would dearly love to see the outcomes thwarted in some way. In the US Midterm election a week on Tuesday those opposed to Trump would dearly like to “clip…

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Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

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Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…

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