Pollster CON LAB LD Error RNB India: phone 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 4.2 ICM phone/past vote weighted 36 (-0.9) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 5 Populus: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 27 (+3.4) 5.2 Ipsos-MORI: phone 36 (-0.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 5 Harris: Online 35 (-1.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 6 ComRes: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 28 (+4.4) 6.2 Opinium: online 35 (-1.9) 27 (-2.7) 26 (+2.4) 7 YouGov: online 35 (-1.9) 28…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 13 Apr 12 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 4% The latest ComRes tracker, in which a fresh sample of 500 is interviewed each day and the total added to the previous day’s responses, is out and has Labour down in the 20s with the Tories at 35%. The survey, for ITV News and the Independent, covers yesterday and Monday and so took place before…
YouGov Daily Poll Apr 14 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5.5% Is this down to the manifesto coverage? My reaction to last night’s polling news was that there might have been a boost in Labour’s position because quite of a lot of the fieldwork had taken place just after the party had received a coverage boost following its manifesto launch. Well it does seem from tonight’s…
ICM – Guardian Apr 4 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 33% 29% LIB DEMS 21% 23% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 6% Could this mean that the red team will get most seats? There’s a new ICM poll for the Guardian just out where the fieldwork was carried out over the holiday weekend. The numbers, with changes on last week’s Guardian/ICM poll show a sharp increase in the Labour numbers to the point where it’s [possible that…
Did Darling’s budget provide him with the peg? Making tax announcements so close to the date is a big risk and no doubt Labour will be working hard at finding the holes so they they can start to undermine it straight away. But the line that Labour has identified billions of efficiency saving as revealed in Darling’s budget gives the Tories some cover – at least for the next few hours. The addition of Ken Clarke alongside Osborne and Hammond…
Would they be doing this now but for the polls? The ads above are the first from Tory party’s new releationship with M&C Saatchi who, now doubt, have done a lot of research on what images of the PM most suit their purpose. It was inevitable that at some stage during the camapign that the Tories would play what they believe is their strongest card – Gordon Brown’s unpopularity. For even during the recent Labour recovery in the polls the…
Could Dave ditch Osborne if/when he becomes PM? Just after 4am yesterday morning I was skimming Monday’s overnight thread to get some ideas for my Tuesday morning post when one thing suddenly struck out – a comment saying that SkyNews were reporting that Cameron was going to re-shuffle the shadow cabinet in response to the declining poll ratings. I wrote that although this would smack of panic the timing could not be better because the news would get swamped on…
Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…