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Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

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The Guardian ICM phone poll is out. It confirms what the suspicion that last month’s ICM with a Labour lead of 7% was an outlier. The Greens are up to 7%, only 3% from being third in a Westminster VI poll! whilst the Lib Dems  are equalling their worst-ever performance over the last two decades. It maybe the Greens are receiving a boost, having just held their conference. For those anticipating swingback, well, there may not be much scope for that…

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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

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A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%. Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO. The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland. Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in…

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The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

The pollsters’ big fear: Thursday could be a disaster for them like 1992

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GE1992 Even the exit poll got it wrong Martin Boon, head of ICM the pollster with the best track record, has voiced on several occasions in recent weeks that the Scottish referendum could be a disaster for them on the scale of 1992. This was when all the firms totally understated the eventual CON lead of 7.5% and only one of them had a lead at all albeit of just 0.5% For GE1992 was the election when the pollsters got…

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Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

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The shape of polling to come post referendum? Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without. The outcome is not surprising but it is good to measure it. Given that generally Survation tends to show higher UKIP figures than most other firms and lower CON ones then the one percent CON deficit should be encouraging. But inevitably the whole political environment…

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ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland finds NO 67% to YES 33%

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New ComRes IndyRef poll for @ITVBorder of South of Scotland finds NO 67% YES 33% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 81% of those interviewed by phone for ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef poll said they were 10/10 certain to vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 English born respondents in ComRes South of Scotland IndyRef phone poll divide 76% NO to 13% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 65+ segment in ComRes South of Scotland…

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Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

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The Survation boss Tweets about his Daily Record IndyRef findings Well that was a long day..results of our new #indyref poll Sept 5-9 are just in and they are quite something! @davieclegg will tweet later. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) September 10, 2014 This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with…

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Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

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The referendum could make or break reputations Just a week to go before the big day and there’s one group that’s getting very nervous – the pollsters. This is such a massive election that their final polls will be remembered for years just as now we point to surveys in Quebec in October 1995. The main challenge is that they’ve had no experience of surveying opinion for an election like this and there are so many uncertainties. Take turnout for…

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At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

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TNS-BMRB due to be published a day early One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian. The problem that online polling creates is that there is a level of self-selection in who takes part. The very fact that you…

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