Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

The Guardian ICM phone poll is out. It confirms what the suspicion that last month’s ICM with a Labour lead of 7% was an outlier.

The Greens are up to 7%, only 3% from being third in a Westminster VI poll! whilst the Lib Dems  are equalling their worst-ever performance over the last two decades. It maybe the Greens are receiving a boost, having just held their conference.

For those anticipating swingback, well, there may not be much scope for that between the Blues and the Reds, the Guardian notes

The small print on the voting intention figures suggests that the trenches of the general election 2015 are already dug very deep. There is almost no direct movement between the main Labour and Tory blocs, with just 2% of David Cameron’s 2010 voters saying they will turn out for Miliband next time, and only 1% of those who voted for Gordon Brown making the opposite journey. Instead, 88% of 2010 Labour voters are staying loyal, as are 81% of 2010 Tories.

The relative standing of the two depends much more on Labour’s success in attracting disaffected Liberal Democrats from 2010 – 36% of whom now plump for Labour, against a mere 33% who plan to stay put – and the Conservatives’ ability to stem leakage to Ukip, which this month is attracting 9% of 2010 Tories.

To put this ICM poll into context, “Martin Boon, director of research at ICM, cautions that the opposition should not assume that this slim lead is secure. “At this stage of the last political cycle, David Cameron stood some 17 points clear of Gordon Brown, and looked set to barnstorm No 10. He ended up in a hung parliament situation, and with a mere two-point lead Ed Miliband looks considerably less secure than that.””

There have a been a couple of other polls out today, both showing the trend of Labour’s lead shrinking/being wiped out in recent days, it makes the Opinium at the weekend with a Labour lead of 8, a bit of an outlier. But all said, I think the polling is consistent with where it largely has been for the last several months, a Labour lead of around 2-3 points.

ICM inevitably had some questions about the Indyref. From this polling the most striking thing was, the Sovereign will of the people of England & Wales is clear. “63% of voters in England and Wales believe that the UK should “refuse to negotiate” over a common currency area if Scotland becomes independent, more than twice as many as the 27% who would favour such talks beginning. This makes for a total contrast with Scotland, where 62% believe that a currency union should be negotiated.”


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